Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
823 FXUS66 KHNX 052007 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 107 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the lower elevations from 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday. 2. The Heat Risk will be major (red) today through Friday afternoon, which will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts are likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure. 3. Temperatures will lower slightly this weekend, but are forecast to still be around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. 4. The anticipated heat could lead to increased snowmelt over the Sierra Nevada, resulting in colder and higher flows along rivers and waterways. && .DISCUSSION... A strong ridge of high pressure has settled over the Southwest today, which is leading to a significant rise in temperatures throughout the area. This ridge is expected to remain in place today through Friday, leading to prolonged excessive heat during the day and poor temperature recovery at night, causing the Heat Risk index to be in the major (red) category. For this reason, an Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect until 8 PM Friday night. This will impact anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Impacts are likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure. It is recommended to limit the time spent in the sun, drink plenty of water and stay in air conditioned areas. Here are the probabilities for 105 degrees in select locations in the San Joaquin Valley and Kern Desert today through Friday: WedThursFri Fresno: 51% 66% 66% Bakersfield: 46% 61% 41% Hanford: 36% 61% 56% Merced: 31% 46% 36% Visalia: 46% 71% 56% Madera: 26% 56% 36% Porterville: 41% 61% 41% Delano: 46% 61% 41% China Lake: 96% 96% 91% Edwards AFB: 91% 81% 36% The ridge will eventually be pushed out of the area by a low pressure trough to the west. A small shortwave associated with it will offer a slightly cooler Friday night and early Saturday morning, making for better temperature recovery. This trough will move through over the weekend, leading to slight cooling in temperatures. Highs are still expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal, but the Heat Risk is expected to come down to moderate (orange) for most of the valley. Another ridge is expected to build back in by Tuesday, which will lead to another increase in temperatures with the San Joaquin Valley back in the triple digits, though they are not expected to be as intense as this weeks warm up. Long range models are beginning to show another trough crossing the southwest by next Thursday, leading to another slight cool down. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA interior for the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 06/04/2024 14:16 EXPIRES: 06/05/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Friday for CAZ300>317- 319-321-332-337>339. && $$ Public/Aviation/Fire Weather.........EW DSS/PIO..............................AB weather.gov/hanford