Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
458 FXUS66 KHNX 212025 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 125 PM PDT Tue May 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures will climb to around 3 to 6 degrees above normal by Wednesday followed by a cool down to slightly below normal temperatures this weekend. 2. Winds will pick up in the Kern County mountains and deserts Wednesday afternoon and evening and will continue to pick up each afternoon and evening through Saturday due to multiple trough passages. && .DISCUSSION...A weak upper ridge is currently nudging inland into central CA which is providing for continued clear skies along with recovering temperatures across much of our area as most of the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra foothills are running 2 to 4 DEG F above yday at this time. With the ridge progged to nudge further inland tonight, additional warming is anticipated on Wednesday. Here are latest NBM probabilities for a high temperature of 90 degrees or higher on Wednesday afternoon for selected locations in the San Joaquin Valley. Merced 36% Madera 36% Fresno 61% Reedley 21% Lemoore 61% Hanford 61% Visalia 61% Porterville 36% Bakersfield 51% Meanwhile, a large upper low pressure system is progged to drop southward into the PAC NW from BC on Wednesday. This low will drop slowly southeast toward the Great Basin region through Thursday before another upper low follows it on Friday and Saturday. While the moisture from these systems will remain well to the north of our area, these systems will push a series of troughs through central CA which will bring a cooling trend to our area which will continue through Saturday with daytime highs across our area expected to be 4 to 7 DEG F below normal on Saturday. The other impacts from these trough passages will be increased winds most noticably over the Kern County mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening between Wednesday and Saturday. There could also be enough instability and lift over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County northward for isolated thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. Medium range ensemble means are showing a flat ridge building into the western CONUS Sunday through Tuesday which will bring about continued dry conditions for our area with a dry westerly flow aloft as well as another period of warming temepratures with daytime highs expected to rise back to above normal levels by early next week. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating that most of the San Joaquin Valley has a 45 to 60 percent chance of reaching 90 DEG F or higher next Tuesday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ public/aviation/fire wx...DS idss...Proton weather.gov/hanford