Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
413 FXUS66 KHNX 232034 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 134 PM PDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A cooling trend will continue on Friday and Saturday with temperatures warming back up starting Sunday. 2. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Friday afternoon. 3. Gusty westerly winds are possible along the Mojave Desert Slopes each afternoon and evening through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...A deepening upper trough over the Intermountain West region is providing for a cool northwest flow aloft over central CA today. Temperatures are running 3 to 6 DEG F across our area with the exception of the Kern County Desert areas which are running close to yday at this time. As this trough drops further southward into the Great Basin tonight and Friday, a shortwave will drop southeastward behind it through central CA on Friday afternoon and evening. The impacts across our area from this shortwave system will be a continuation of the ongoing cooling trend on Friday and Saturday with below normal readings expected. By Saturday, NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating most of the San Joaquin Valley has between a 25 and 50 percent chance of maximum temperatures below 80 DEG F. The other impacts that the passing of this shortwave will have for our area will be a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada on Friday afternoon and a period of potentially strong wind gusts along the Mojave Desert slopes between Friday afternoon and Satruday morning. An upper ridge is progged to shift inland on Sunday and Memorial Day which will bring a warming trend to our area with temperatures expected to be above daily climatological normals by Memorial Day. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating most of the San Joaquin Valley has between a 40 and 60 PoE of maximum temperatures of 90 DEG F or higher. Although the ensembles are showing some spread for next week, the ensemble means are indicating that the ridge will maintain it`s position over the Great Basin region next week which will maintain above normal temperatures and dry conditions for our area for Tuesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada after 19Z Fri. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior through at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 8 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire wx...DAS idss...Proton weather.gov/hanford