Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
864 FXUS66 KHNX 271742 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1042 AM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada this afternoon and evening. 2. A warming trend will result in afternoon highs of 3 to 7 degrees above normal beginning today that will last through the week. 3. There is a moderate (50 to 70 percent) probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday and Saturday in the San Joaquin Valley. 4. Gusty west winds are expected Tuesday through the weekend for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION... A warmer day is in store today, as the ridge of high pressure continues to slightly build today into Tuesday. Afternoon highs have a decent chance (40 to 70 percent) to reach the 90 degree mark (roughly 5 degrees above average, give or take a couple of degrees) at the warmest SJ Valley locations. Maximum daytime temperatures will once again top 90 degrees in the Kern County desert where a 90 to 100 percent chance of occurrence exists. An embedded shortwave trough will pass over Central California today, so it appears the best chance for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms for this week will be during this afternoon and evening, or a 15 to 25 percent chance. Little change in the overall pattern is expected on Tuesday as ridging remains in control over our region and the Desert Southwest. However, by Tuesday evening, there is a moderate chance (30-50 percent) of gusts above 45 mph along the Mojave Desert Slopes as a sufficient gradient sets up. A slight lowering of temperatures occurs on Wednesday with increased winds once again over the Mojave Desert slopes. Some breezy conditions occur along the Coastal Ranges, although not as pronounced as what occurred recently. However, the desert regions will continue to warm, and a triple digit reading has as much as a 50 percent chance of occurrence at Ridgecrest/China Lake for Wednesday. Otherwise, the warming trend returns for Thursday through the end of the week. Triple digit heat is not inconceivable on Friday and Saturday, as blended guidance shows probabilities of around 10 to 30 percent for most Central Valley locations. It is much more likely we will see readings in the mid-upper 90`s in these areas. This translates to roughly 10 degrees above normal. As for the desert, Ridgecrest and China Lake still have continued chances for readings (65-75 percent chance) at the century mark or a little hotter. Warm weather with mainly dry conditions continue through early next week. Afternoon and evening gusty winds will not be out of the question for locations along the Mojave Desert slopes for the foreseeable future, which is common for late May into early June. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across central California over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/JEB weather.gov/hanford