Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
948 FXUS66 KHNX 230818 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 118 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cooling trend Thursday into Saturday with temperatures warming back up starting Sunday. 2. There is a chance for thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada Friday afternoon and evening. 3. Gusty westerly winds will develop across the Kern County mountains and desert each afternoon and evening through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Latest model ensembles show a trough over the Pacific Northwest that is sliding to the east and with this trough is a northwesterly flow bringing cooler air to our area. The ensembles are showing that this cooler upper level flow will continue as a second trough moves into the Pacific Northwest with its axis over the Great Basin on Friday into Saturday. Temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley are forecasted to drop drastically from today to Friday and Saturday with about a 50 to 75 percent probability of high temperatures of 80 degrees or below on Saturday for the San Joaquin Valley with the exception of Hanford which has a 34 percent probability. This second trough also brings a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening to the Sierra Nevada above 8,000 feet. This northwest flow and the sinking air affiliated with cold fronts of a trough will also help result in high winds every afternoon and evening through Saturday for the Kern County mountains and desert. The pattern changes Sunday and Monday as model ensembles have a strong agreement that a strong ridge will develop over the Western CONUS. High temperatures rebound due to this ridge with a 45 to 75 percent chance of high temperatures of at least 90 degrees for Memorial Day which increases to a 65 to 90 percent chance of high temperatures of at least 90 on Tuesday. The probabilities drop a bit on Wednesday to a 55 to 75 percent chance of high temperatures of at least 90 degrees. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ338. && $$ JPK weather.gov/hanford