Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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266 FXUS64 KHUN 201430 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 930 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New NEAR TERM... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 930 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Dry and warmer weather will continue today, as upper ridging builds aloft and sfc high pressure remains to our east. This will keep warm southerly flow in place, causing afternoon temps to rise into the mid to upper 80s. Based on current temperature trends, did bump highs up a degree or two which brings some of the more urban locations close to the 90 degree mark today. Otherwise, we will enjoy mostly sunny skies this morning and a few increasing clouds through the afternoon with light southeasterly winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 High pressure over the Southern Appalachians will be the predominant weather feature across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, promoting mostly clear and dry weather across the region through midweek. Highs in the 85-90 degree range will be common both days as southerly winds help to reinforce the warm air mass -- while also advecting some Gulf moisture back into the area. This can be seen with dewpoints climbing back into the mid 60s which will help to keep nighttime temperatures in the 65-70 degree range over a bulk of the Tennessee Valley. A slow moving cold front to the northwest of the region will slowly approach the area on Thursday. Convection riding along this boundary may provide some cloud cover and lower-end chances (20-40%) for showers/storms (favoring northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee) during the afternoon hours. However, most areas will remain dry -- with continued warmth (highs in the mid/upper 80s) being the main story. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 A mid/upper shortwave pivoting from the Ozarks into the Mid SOuth will finally push the aforementioned front into portions of the Tennessee Valley by late Thursday night into Friday and subsequently bring medium to high (40-70%) chance for showers and storms to the area. General view of the storm environment would favor plenty of CAPE with sufficient shear to support at least a few organized strong storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with locally heavy downpours) being the main threats on Friday. We`ll remain in a fairly active pattern through most of the upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft allowing for additional shortwaves to traverse the region. Subsequently, medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be present in the forecast both Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR to localized IFR conditions will continue through 13z at KMSL due to light fog. Otherwise, a mostly clear sky and light winds will promote VFR conditions through the period at each terminal. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...25 SHORT TERM....AMP LONG TERM....AMP AVIATION...AMP