714
FXUS64 KHUN 262356
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
656 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 2 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Heat will remain a concern through the rest of the day as temps
rise into the high 80s and low 90s with real feel temps in the mid
90s. The partly cloudy conditions right now are priming the
environment for our severe threat later tonight. The warm moist
air is quickly destabilizing the boundary layer with 1500-2000
J/KG of CAPE developing through the afternoon and lingering into
the overnight hours. Our very unstable environment leading up to
tonight has been well represented in model trends and is currently
verifying very well.

Our severe threat tonight will come as a surface low pressure
system passes us to the north. A broken line of storms will move
through our area ahead of the attached cold front. The broken line
of storms and overall timing of the line have both been well
represented in the models. Current timing remains from 1AM - 7AM,
give or take an hour or two. Models continue to show favorable
parameters for all severe hazards tonight. Lingering CAPE of
1500-2000 J/KG along with low and mid level lapse rates between
7-8 C/KM will support a threat for large hail. The orientation of
the line along with bulk shear of 45-60 KTS will support damaging
winds preforming as our primary threat. Models have yet to align
on supporting both strong directional and speed shear. This is
yielding high uncertainty in the development of a higher
confidence tornado threat. Consensus between the models certainly
supports the risk for one or two embedded tornadoes however if
direction shear increases, this would increase our tornado risk.
Further mesoanalysis throughout the afternoon using both model
soundings and surrounding offices soundings will help us refine
the tornado risk.

Three other factors we will be assessing throughout the evening
is the presence of a CAP, impacts from any mid-level dry air, and
prefrontal convection. Models are again inconsistent in resolving
both a CAP and dry air in the profile. My current assessment is
that we will likely start off the event CAPED with a decent amount
of dry air. I expect the ongoing storms to our north to quickly
moisten the profile and for the CAP to erode as the line moves
through. That being said, the presence and persistence of both of
these features would hinder both our tornado potential and the
strength of the line overall. As for prefrontal convection, this
would likely be diurnally and outflow boundary driven, thus the
models are slow to highlight it. Any storms that do develop this
afternoon will again be in a very favorable environment for all
convective hazards.

Regardless of how our tornado threat evolves, straightline winds
can be equally as damaging and warrant the same need to prepare.
Before you go to bed, make sure you have a plan and have multiple
ways to receive warning including those that will wake you up
while you sleep.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 2 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Storms should be exiting the area just after sunrise on Monday
morning. While light rain and low clouds may linger into the
morning, clearing should begin by mid day yielding a mostly clear
and dry afternoon with highs in the mid 80s.

The remainder of the short term will see surface high pressure
build in from the NW. High pressure will keep us calm and dry
through the remainder of the short term with a slight cool down on
Wednesday with temps only reaching the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

As upper level ridging moves in from the Mississippi Valley
through end of the work week, dry weather and mostly clear skies
will continue to dominate the long term period. Friday afternoon
through Saturday, low chances (30% or less) of showers/storms are
possible as an upper level shortwave forms in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Otherwise, high temperatures during this time
are forecast to be in the upper 70s to 80s with overnight lows in
the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the early overnight hours
ahead of a strong storm system expected to move through the area
near and after midnight. Gusty south/southwesterly winds will
persist through much of the overnight hours, with MVFR cigs
arriving around 01z. Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and
heavy rain will all be possible with these storms overnight
through Monday morning, and amendments to the TAFs may be needed
overnight. Reductions to IFR/LIFR conditions are likely in heavier
thunderstorms, between 06-12z being the greatest threat window.
VFR conditions should resume by 12-14z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...25