892
FXUS64 KHUN 251935
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
235 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The rest of today still remains somewhat uncertain regarding the
potential for strong to severe storms. Our morning convection has
made it well southeast of here, however outflow from the system
has triggered at least one storm currently in Birmingham`s area.
With this outflow storm initiating so far south of us, it is less
likely this specific boundary will trigger storms in our area. The
corridor we will be watching through the afternoon currently
resides in NW AL in the form of a broken line of scattered
cumulus. Should any boundaries interact with this, it would likely
be enough to trigger storm initiation. If no boundaries move into
it, it will likely just remain as a Cu field. Any storms that do
develop will pose a threat for gusty winds, hail, and frequent
lightning.

Sunset should aid in squandering any storms that do develop with a
very calm night anticipated. While winds won`t be entirely calm,
very small dew point depressions may allow for some shallow ground
fog in sheltered valleys and along water ways to develop. A system
passing to our north near sunrise Sunday morning may support some
very light showers yet as the sun rises this will aid in
dissipating any lingering fog or ongoing showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Before any mention of severe weather, we must discuss the high
temperatures on Sunday! We have a very high chance of seeing our
first 90 degree day at several locations. This has been well
represented in nearly all of the HIRES models. Unfortunately this
will only aid in destabilizing the boundary layer throughout the
day tomorrow and prime the environment for overnight storms.
After very sunny peak heating hours, CAMS indicate 1500-2000+ J/KG
of CAPE lingering into the overnight hours for storms to take
advantage of.

Our severe threat comes from a surface low pressure system passing
just to the NW of us. A broken line of storms will move through
the area ahead of an attached cold front Sunday night into Monday
morning, bringing all modes of severe weather and warranting a
slight risk (2/5) from SPC. As we entered into CAM coverage this
morning, models have been very consistent with harsh environmental
parameters being present Sunday night. The aformentioned CAPE
will support strong updrafts with 50-60+ KTS of bulk shear
favoring organized convection and yielding a low but non zero
tornado threat. Steep lapse rates from 7-8 C/KM will support a
hail threat and the orientation of the line will be very favorable
for damaging winds, which will likely prevail as our primary
threat. While CAMS have been consistent in showing the line and
favorable parameters, they have yet to align on timing. What
appears clear right now is that the HIRES models favor a earlier
arrival of the line and a faster departure as compared to
previously used global models. Current models have the line
entering NW AL Sunday night as early as 8 pm but as late as
midnight. Current exit times look to be around mid morning on
Monday.

Timing is one of two aspects we will continue to refine in
subsequent forecasts. The second aspect is the potential for
scattered storm development ahead of the line. Models have not
necessarily picked up on this yet but the environment Sunday
afternoon and evening will be supportive of all modes of severe
weather should anything develop ahead of the line.

After the line exits our area, clear and dry conditions will
develop in its wake throughout the day on Monday. These conditions
will prevail for the remainder of the short term as high pressure
will begin to build in from the NW. Highs will be slightly cooler
than Sunday only reaching the mid to high 80s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Sfc high pressure allows for dry weather to settle over the
region through the mid week. Upper level shortwaves will allow a
very low chance of showers (10% or less) during this time,
however, confidence is low in this occurring. High temperatures
during this period are forecast to be in the 80s with overnight
lows in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

There will be two periods of concern that will pose a threat to
otherwise VFR conditions. This afternoon there will be a chance
for scattered thunderstorm development. With very low confidence
on location and timing, TS has been left out of the TAF for now.
Tomorrow morning there are some indicators of fog and or low
clouds. This is shown in the TAF as the ceilings are lowered
significantly however confidence on the development of MVFR
conditions is also low at this time and thus it has been left out
of the TAF for now. Both TS chances and MVFR chances will be
refined in further TAF issuances.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...RAD