922
FXUS63 KICT 210833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few severe storms possible this afternoon and evening over
  southeast Kansas.

- Continued off-and-on chances for thunderstorms Thursday
  through Sunday night.

- A period of dry weather with less humidity by Monday of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...The potential for a few severe
thunderstorms exists generally along and east of the Flint Hills, as
potent shortwave energy ejects onto the Great Plains, and a cold
front/dryline combo approaches/sharpens from the west. The best
forcing looks to remain northeast of the region, which should keep
storms more isolated over southeast KS. Consequently, not everyone
will see storms. Strong instability coupled with long hodographs
will support the potential for severe weather with any storm(s) that
can form. Deep layer shear is oriented strongly parallel to the cold
front/dryline intersection, and hodograph shape is less than ideal,
which should support a mixed storm mode and/or splitting supercells
(which would then result in storm interactions and interference).
This should cut into the potential for higher-end severe weather,
with the primary threats large hail and damaging winds. Can`t
completely rule out a tornado given the strong deep layer shear and
big CAPE, but the overall tornado threat is low.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...After a break Wednesday, model
consensus supports the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances
Thursday PM, as deep warm advection and moisture transport commence
amidst subtle upper forcing. Deep layer shear is only modest,
although increasing deep moisture/instability amidst steep lapse
rates may support an isolated to widely scattered severe weather
threat, primarily consisting of large hail and damaging winds, along
with locally heavy rain.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A strong cold front looks to blast south through the
region Thursday night-Friday, shifting Friday afternoon-evening
thunderstorm chances east-southeast of the forecast area. GFS and
ECMWF progress a shortwave into the region Saturday, with associated
northward returning moisture/instability. Model consensus keeps
Kansas primarily north of the warm front Saturday, which would tend
to keep severe weather potential more marginal and support potential
for heavy rainfall through Saturday night. A rather deep shortwave
looks to approach from the northwest on the heels of Saturday`s
system, which could spark additional thunderstorm chances for Sunday-
Sunday night, although moisture/instability may be lacking being so
close to the heels of Saturday`s departing system.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...The Sunday-early Monday system looks to
usher in a pattern change across the region through at least mid to
late next week, with dry northwest flow aloft. This should support
mostly dry weather, with lower dewpoints and seasonable to
seasonably cool temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

LLWS will affect central Kansas and portions of south-central
Kansas this morning as a strong LLJ develops over the region.
Surface winds will also remain out of the south or southeast at
around 15 to 25 knots through about 12-14Z this morning. A cold
front will push across the region throughout much of the day
today, and winds will gradually shift from southerly, to
westerly, and then eventually northerly by this evening or
tonight.

A slight chance of a couple of storms is possible across
southeast Kansas this evening, but chances are currently low
enough to omit this from the KCNU TAF.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JC