Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
643 FXUS63 KICT 240547 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1247 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms (some severe) this afternoon and evening - Nice quiet day for Friday - Another round of showers and thunderstorms (some severe) for Saturday afternoon and into the overnight&& .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Current synoptic setup shows continued moisture advection into the CWA this afternoon with an approaching frontal system from the west. Lapse rates start off decent (7-8C) but then 700mb warming takes over reducing them to the 5-6C range. Additionally, the CWA is rather capped with a decent mid level inversion that it taking its time to break. This lends to a conditional thunderstorms threat with the best chance for thunderstorm activity likely to be just to the west of the CWA. Expecting this thunderstorm activity to develop after 4PM this afternoon and may become more prolific as the evening progresses. Most of the ensembles are indicating improving lapse rates into the evening time frame which will make thunderstorm activity more favorable provided thunderstorms can even initiate this afternoon. If they do, mid and upper level shear is rather good so these thunderstorms are likely to grow up scale and become severe with large hail and winds in the 70mph range with the strongest storms. The tornado threat is not great but also, not zero either and as such, a tornado is possible with the stronger storms this evening. Tonight, the front will be pushing through and will bring the chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of the CWA. After 9PM, the parameters remain favorable to thunderstorm activity but the best chances for severe thunderstorm activity is expected to remain to the north. That said, the severe thunderstorm threat for the CWA will remain but somewhat reduced with main threat being 60 mph winds during the overnight. Additionally, expecting the northern areas of the CWA to have the best chances for the severe thunderstorm activity tonight. Friday, the front will have pushed through the region and will bring the winds back around to the north and west. While this is normally a strong CAA direction, do not expect temperatures to drop too much and are likely to remain near normal. Winds will be a little brisk but expected to remain well below advisory level at this time. Friday night, the winds will slowly shift back to the south and southeast and allow the moisture advection to return to the region. This will help "reload" the atmosphere with the needed fuel for another round of thunderstorm activity. Severe thunderstorms are likely Saturday afternoon and into the overnight period. Most of the ensembles are fully on board with this with a few outliers showing a lot less activity. That said, lapse rates of 8C-10C are likely to be prevalent with a shear profile that strongly supports discrete super cells that could be long lived. This setup strongly supports the potential for a significant severe weather event but new ensemble runs also point to a couple of problems with this possibility. The first is the 300-250mb jet placement is good but not great and may be just a little too far south to permit wide spread severe thunderstorm development. The second is the fact the moisture required to fuel this activity is expected to arrive "just in time" which presents to possibility it may not arrive in time. This may also be impacted by how much mid level moisture is present and could keep the clouds in place for much of the morning and into the afternoon. This could make it difficult for the needed instability in the late afternoon and into the evening. If any these possibilities occur, then the extent of the thunderstorm activity less than currently expected. Despite these possibilities, will continue to expect a significant severe weather outbreak for Saturday and into the overnight. Will need to see later forecast runs before a higher confidence in Saturday afternoon and into the overnight can occur. Next week, the pattern looks to quiet down with ridging and northerly winds pushing into the region. Temperatures look to cool down a little but will remain near normal for this time of year. The next chance for thunderstorms looks to be next Wednesday afternoon. Intensity of this activity is not known as ensembles do not agree on timing and location. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 A few aviation concerns exist for the area from now through about 15Z this morning. An approaching cold front is triggering storms across northern Kansas tonight, but these storms should stay along or just north of the I-70 corridor. South and east of the front, MVFR cigs are expected to continue developing, and could be widespread for much of the morning hours prior to frontal passage. Regardless of thunderstorm development, a sharp wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly is expected. Currently winds ahead of the front are sustained around 15-25 knots with gusts around 25-40 knots. Similar wind speeds and gusts are expected after frontal passage as well. By 15Z, the front should clear southeast Kansas, and drier air should allow for MVFR cigs to clear from the area. Currently, VFR conditions are expected to prevail by 15-17Z late this morning. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...ELM AVIATION...JC