Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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035 FXUS63 KICT 251733 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Significant severe weather episode possible early this evening through the overnight hours. - Dry and mild conditions expected for Memorial Day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Currently have an upper low lifting into Southern Manitoba with additional upper energy about to move into the Great Basin. At the surface, cold front extends from eastern MO into southeast OK with a surface high situated over northwest MO. Very complex severe weather setup expected today and this evening with a lot of moving parts. As a series of upper impulses approaches the Rockies, lee troughing will strengthen over eastern CO. This will also allow return flow to rapidly increase across the Plains which will result in rich low level moisture lifting north. The big question for today/tonight will be how far north the quality moisture can make it, as most of KS currently has dewpoints in the 40s. Model trends have been to keep the better moisture further south. Dryline really never has a chance to become very defined across KS but is less diffuse further south across western OK into TX. Confidence remains fairly low on how much convection will develop along the dryline across KS with somewhat higher confidence further south across Western OK. If a storm is able to develop on the diffuse dryline over west/central KS, it would be in an environment with large temp/dew spreads which would initially limit tor potential until the storm moves into an area of richer low level moisture. Any surfaced based storm that is able to make it into southern KS would have a great environment for extremely large hail and tornadoes given very impressive deep layer shear. In addition, low level jet will rapidly increase after 00z which would also elevate low level SRH and associated tor potential. Starting to wonder if the more likely scenario to get widespread convection across our area maybe after 02z well east of the dryline as 850-700mb moisture transport quickly ramps-up which also coincides when the shortwave moves out across the region. In this setup there is a chance storms would not be surfaced based which would yield very large hail and damaging winds the main threats, with east and northeast portions of the forecast area having the better chances to see severe storms. Storms will quickly track east and will be out of KS by Sun morning with some lingering showers across northeast KS as the last of the upper impulses finally lifts out of the area. Good conditions are looking to setup for Memorial Day with good model agreement in a fast moving upper impulse moving out of the Northern Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, weak high pressure will settle over the area Mon providing slightly above normal temps and plenty of sunshine. Medium range models remain consistent in digging another piece of energy out of South Central Canada and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tue morning which will reinforce a surface high across the Northern and Central Plains. However, along the western periphery of the high, rich moisture will start to work back around to the north, increasing storm chances across the High Plains. Some of these shower and storm chances will work their way into our forecast area for Tue night through Wed night. However, it does not appear we are looking at any kind of organized severe weather episode as the better upper flow remains to the north. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the first six or so hours of the TAF period. From 23Z to 04Z tonight, thunderstorm chances ramp up significantly. Confidence on location and timing is rather low (~30%) so left the thunderstorm activity out of the TAF for this cycle until thunderstorms actually "show themselves". Given this uncertainty, if thunderstorms do occur, there is a good chance for hail (>1") and winds in excess of 60Kts. The greatest chance for this activity will be in South Central Kansas, affecting KHUT and KICT and to a lesser extent, KGBD and KSLN. The risk of thunderstorm activity will continue through 08Z. By this time, the thunderstorm activity will be in the KCNU area and will slowly push out of the region. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...ELM