Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
486 FXUS63 KICT 020531 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1231 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms this afternoon/evening, especially across central and south-central KS - Better chances for showers/storms tonight, especially along and west of Interstate 135 - Several showers/storm chances continue into next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 As of 230 PM, another complex weather pattern is emerging across the Plains with multiple focal points for storm development. The first focal point extends along a differential mixing boundary from near McPherson to near Hays. Latest visible satellite reveals a deepening cumulus field along the boundary with some agitation near Hays. Forecast soundings along the boundary are quite favorable for severe storms with considerable veering throughout the profile yielding near 40 kt of effective shear. Therefore the strongest storms would be capable of golfball size hail and damaging winds up to 60 mph. Given the veering low-level wind profile, a tornado cannot be ruled, especially in the immediate vicinity of the boundary. As diurnal cooling ensues this evening, this zone of convection should dissipate. Our attention then turns westward once again to the second focal point for storm development. A weak trough axis across far western KS/eastern CO should allow for development shortly. Cold pool mergers are probable through the evening with an eventual upscale growth. Similar to this morning, it seems probable any MCS may deviate southeastward into northern OK where the better low-level theta-e resides. An additional complex may develop across western OK and progress southeastward into portions of central KS. Again, the overall lack of large scale ascent doesn`t lend to great confidence in convective evolution. All of that to say, any organized MCS overnight will be capable of damaging winds up to 65 mph. A very similar setup is expected late Sunday into Sunday night with convection developing across the higher terrain and progressing east and southeast into Monday morning. Any organized MCS will be capable of damaging winds up to 65 mph once again. The active pattern will continue through at least Tuesday with weak perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to moderately unstable environment. Confidence continues to increase for the active pattern continuing into next weekend with the potential for an amplified midlevel ridge axis sliding into the Plains decreasing. This result would keep shower/storm chances going and temperatures in the 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR is anticipated through much of the period, but any isolated or widely scattered storms may result in reduced flight categories briefly. We could see a cluster of storms around sunrise in central KS but confidence in development remains low with no mention planned in our central KS TAFs. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds are expected to develop across the area on Sunday with some gusts exceeding 25 knots at times. Confidence in hit or miss storms on Sunday afternoon and evening remain low. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMB AVIATION...MWM