907
FXUS63 KICT 252241
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
541 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight

- Drying out Sunday and into Monday

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorm will be mid to late next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This afternoon and evening forecast is heavily dependent on when
quality moisture (Tds >65F) arrives in the region and when the cap
breaks.  Currently, the moisture is to the south in Eastern OK and
into Arkansas. This moisture is currently moving further west into
OK as of late morning and is expected to move north into Kansas.
This is expected to continue through afternoon today and will
serving to help destabilize the atmosphere in CWA.  How fast this
moisture advection occurs this afternoon is still in question and
creates a significant amount of uncertainty for the possibility of
thunderstorms this afternoon.  To add to this uncertainty, most of
the BUFKIT soundings show a decent cap in place over much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas this afternoon through sunset. By
sunset, the dryline is expected to encroach on the CWA from the west
and provide the needed push to kick off the thunderstorm activity.
Due to the late arrival of the quality moisture, this dry line will
be rather diffuse so the initiation point/location of this
thunderstorm activity is difficult to identify.  Given this
uncertainty and the presence of a decent cap over much of the CWA,
it is looking like thunderstorm activity will not start until closer
to sunset rather than this afternoon.  That said, if an updraft is
able to break through, the mid level cap this afternoon, it will
grow up scale quickly as the mid and upper level dynamics are very
supportive of severe thunderstorms.  This will make this a low
chance but high impact possibility for this afternoon.  As sunset
approaches, this will change dramatically with a much higher
likelyhood of severe thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the CWA and enter the CWA around
sunset. By this time, the moisture will be in place and will create
conducive environment for severe thunderstorm activity.  Large,
damaging hail, damaging winds and with a few strong tornadoes are
possible during the evening.  This activity will move across the CWA
with this thunderstorm activity likely coming together into a more
linear or squall line mode as it moves into the I-135 corridor. Once
this occurs, high winds (65+ mph) are expected but large hail and an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.  This thunderstorm activity is
expected to push through the CWA during the overnight with Southeast
Kansas likely to see some residual thunderstorm activity Sunday
morning but this will be pushing out of the region.

Sunday the main area of showers and thunderstorms will push to the
east and north.  This activity may linger in these areas for much of
the afternoon but do not expect severe weather to linger and is
expected to push off to the east.  Monday high pressure will
dominate and keep the shower and thunderstorm activity out of the
forecast.  Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this
time and through the end of the week.  Rain chances increase by mid
week and into end of the week.  At this time, the best chance for
rain look to be toward the end of the week with smaller chances on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 24Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

60+ dew points arrived at the southern terminals late this afternoon
and cu popped up as a result of the lower level moisture, diabtic
heating and colder and drier air aloft. An upper wave moving through
from the southwest, dry line advancing from the west, deep shear of
50+ knots and moderate to strong instability will all combine for
the potential for scattered to widespread strong to severe
thunderstorms from near issuance time at KRSL and KGDB to 06z at
KCNU. Gusts to 50+, hail greater than an inch and tornadoes are all
possible along with MVFR and brief IFR flying conditions.

Best chances of thunderstorms looks to be at KICT, KHUT and KNU,
closer to the higher dew points, so will put Tempo thunderstorm
groups in there. In fact, radar was showing two supercells, that
were just southeast of Dodge City, moving northeast toward
Hutchinson and Wichita and set to be nearby shortly after 01z.

As the complex low pressure system moves away Sunday morning, flying
conditions will improve and winds will shift to the southwest and
later northwest.

Winds away from convection will be mostly from the south and
southeast with gusts to around 25 knots over the eastern terminals
and 30+ knots over western ones.


&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...MK