055
FXUS62 KILM 051947
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity and storm coverage will increase over the next couple
days before a cold front moves through Friday. The weekend will
bring seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions, with
low rain chances returning late Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Isolated/widely scattered showers/tstms will continue into the
evening, mainly away from the coast, which is shielded by a well
developed sea breeze. Activity should wane shortly after sunset with
the loss of heating. For now will keep PoPs out overnight, however
an isolated shower/tstm can`t be completely ruled out given weak
ripples in southwest flow aloft. The 500 mb positively-tilted trough
axis will extend from southeast LA across the western Carolinas by
12Z Thursday, and it will slowly to transition to the SE US coast by
Thursday evening. Deep southwest flow will become more enhanced
Thursday, leading to a more progressive storm motion than has been
noted in the convection west of us over the last couple of days.
Shower/tstm coverage should be increasing Thursday, but still looks
to be somewhat scattered in nature, so will hold PoPs in the 35-45%
range for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather ahead of a cold front to end the work week. Only
major changes are lingering low POPs Fri near the coast as the cold
front looks to stall at the coast through the day before pushing
offshore fully Fri night. There also appears to be a bit of a sea
breeze right at the coast. Needless to say, in this area enough
moisture and instability should linger to warrant mentions of slight
thunder in the forecast. Inland should remain mostly dry with
clearing skies through Fri AM. Highs in the lower 90s, near 90 Fri
as CAA lags behind the front. Meanwhile lows will drop from near 70
into the low to mid 60s Fri night under northerly flow and clear
skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sfc high pressure will build in from the west for the weekend with
dry conditions through Sun. A closed low to our NE will push waves
of shortwave energy through aloft, shower and storm chances
increasing through mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SW flow will continue through the TAF period. Showers/tstms
have been slow to materialize this afternoon, but a few will be
found across the Pee Dee into early evening. For now have handled
with VCTS at KFLO/KLBT. Coastal terminals should remain quiet given
the penetration of the sea breeze front. Activity should die off
after sunset, but an isolated shower or tstm is not out of the
question overnight given some weak shortwave energy aloft. SW flow
will be more enhanced Thursday between an approaching front and
offshore high pressure. Showers and thunderstorms should be
increasing in coverage Thursday, particularly inland, but mostly
after 18Z.

Extended Outlook... Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more
widespread Thursday night ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday
and Saturday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered
showers and storms late Sunday into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Thursday...High pressure off the Carolina coast will shift
further offshore tonight and Thursday. A cold front will slowly
move eastward across TN tonight and into the western Carolinas on
Thursday. As a result, winds will take on more of a SW trajectory,
with speeds increasing towards 20 kt Thursday afternoon as the
gradient tightens. A 1-2 ft SE swell around 7 seconds will persist
through Thursday. A 5 second SSW wind wave will build to 3 ft this
evening and continue through Thursday ahead of the front, which is
expected to be pushing through the central Carolinas by late Thursday
afternoon.

Thursday Night through Monday...Infrequent gusts near 25 kts are
possible at the start of the period as a cold front approaches. The
front looks to stall at or just offshore from the coast through Fri
evening before continuing offshore Fri night, so SSW winds could
persist over the waters until they become NW overnight into Sat
morning, speeds near 10 kts. Winds turn to the SSW at 15 kts again
Sun ahead of another cold front which looks to move through Mon,
improving conditions expected behind the boundary. Seas 4-5 ft
decrease to 2-3 ft with 4 footers possible again late Sun into early
Mon.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Thursday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...CRM
MARINE...LEW/CRM