277
FXUS62 KILM 190544
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
144 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will push off the coast tonight, with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms continuing into Sunday. Cooler and drier air will
move into the area on Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm by
mid-week, and no precipitation is expected. A weakening cold front
will approach the region Thursday night, bringing a chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
A line of showers with isolated thunder is persisting across
northern SC and into the Cape Fear region. This line is along an
area of low level convergence (seen on 925mb and 850mb
mesoanalysis charts) where a front is lingering. This line of
scattered showers is expected to persist over the next few
hours, with only slow movement southward allowing for some
training. WPC has issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion
along this line for possible isolated flooding, particularly for
low-lying area, as we`ve had well above normal rainfall the past
1-2 weeks. Luckily instability is meager, especially given time
of day, so convection is quite shallow, which would require
decent training to produce flooding concerns.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Energy in the mid levels of the atmosphere will interact with a
frontal boundary and warm, moist air over the area to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon and
evening. The front will drop south through the area late tonight
into Sunday, reducing but not eliminating chances for rain for
Sunday. Lows tonight will fall to the mid 60s with highs Sunday in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will shift off the coast, and scattered showers
are possible along the coastal counties through midnight. Cool,
dry, high pressure will build over the area on Monday. Monday`s
high temperatures will be in the upper to lower 70s. Lows on
Sunday night will be in the upper 50s, and on Monday night, they
will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the regions Tuesday through Thursday.
A cold front will move into the Carolinas on Thursday and to
the eastern half of the Carolinas on Friday. This front will
dissipate over the area on Saturday. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will begin Thursday afternoon, mainly west of
Interstate 95, before chances increase across the entire region
on Friday and Saturday.

As the week progresses, we can anticipate a gradual increase in
temperatures. On Tuesday, highs are expected to reach the lower
80s inland and the upper 70s along the beaches. This warming
trend will continue from Wednesday to Saturday, with highs
climbing to the mid- to upper 80s inland and the lower 80s at
the beaches. Low temperatures will slowly rise from the lower
60s Tuesday night to 67 to 70 degrees along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR ceilings have begun to develop, mainly north of a semi-
stationary line of showers and isolated thunderstorms across
northern SC and into Cape Fear region. As the boundary
associated with these showers move southward, sub-VFR ceilings
will in turn spread further south. Ceilings expected to be solid
IFR for majority of the area by pre-dawn hours and linger for a
bit into the day Sunday. Low level wedging may keep low stratus
across the area through at least 18z before improvements begin
from NW to SE late afternoon. IFR may become low-end MVFR
around midday (16z). After stratus clears out (possibly not
until after 0z at SC coastal terminals), VFR conditions tonight.

Current line of showers/storms will impact KFLO for a few more
hours before moving southward. Additional activity centered
across SC may impact KCRE and KMYR late morning into afternoon
hours. Winds generally out of the NE 5-10 kts majority of TAF
period.

Extended Outlook...VFR during the day on Monday. VFR should
otherwise prevail with early morning vis or cig restrictions
possible each day through the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Sunday:
Southwest winds to 10 KT or less will become
west late tonight and N to NE at 10 to 15 KT Sunday. Seas of 2
to 3 FT tonight will continue into Sunday.

Sunday Night Through Friday:
A cold front will shift east of the waters on Sunday night, and
high pressure will build over the waters through Thursday. On
Friday, a cold front will approach eastern North Carolina.

Winds are expected to increase to 15 to 20 knots Sunday night
into Monday before the pressure gradient weakens by Monday
afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Monday, with
the best chances in the waters south of Murrells Inlet,
highlighting the need for caution.

Seas are expected to increase to 2 to 4 feet on Sunday night
into Monday before diminishing to 2 feet by Thursday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...VAO
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...RH
AVIATION...VAO
MARINE...RH/31