Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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344 FXUS62 KILM 060807 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 407 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity and storm coverage will increase today before a weak cold front moves through early Friday. The weekend will bring mostly dry conditions, with low rain chances returning late Sunday through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Showers and a few rumbles of thunder associated with a weak shortwave will continue prior to sunrise. As these showers and the perturbation aloft move offshore skies will become mostly clear with hot and humid conditions. Highs in the lower 90s are expected this afternoon which will likely give way to scattered thunderstorms this ahead of a cold front. Increasing winds ahead of the front will lead to max afternoon gusts up to 20 mph inland and up to 25 mph along the coast. Convective initiation along a cold front this afternoon is likely to result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms. The best chance for higher PoP appears to be across NC with more cellular convection over SC. Not much in the way of shear this afternoon, but it is possible that these showers mold into some sort of linear feature during the late afternoon and early evening. SPC has put the area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms. The main threat with these storms is damaging wind gusts. This threat would increase in the event that a linear feature develops. Showers gradually push offshore overnight. Light winds and wet soils behind the front could lead to the development of patchy fog prior to sunrise Friday. Lows in the low and mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A front will move off the coast early Friday, resulting in a mainly dry and less humid period. It should be noted there is a small chance of showers or a thunderstorm Friday before dewpoints fall more significantly in the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, fair weather is expected through this period. Highs both days will reach the upper 80s to around 90 with lows in the low to mid 60s Friday night and mid to upper 60s Saturday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An approaching front will bring increasing clouds and a chance of showers and thunderstorms by Sunday night. The front may linger near the area for much of next week, resulting in a chance for showers and storms each day, mainly in the afternoon and evening as is typical of summer. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weak shortwave will pass through early this morning with low clouds possible and the potential for shower or two along the coast. Increasing coverage of showers and storms this afternoon ahead of a cold front. SW flow will increase today with gusts up to 20 knots inland and up to 25 knots along the coast. Extended Outlook... Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more widespread Thursday night ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday and Saturday. Restrictions possible in isolated/scattered showers and storms late Sunday into early next week. && .MARINE... Through tonight...Winds increase ahead of a cold front today. Southerly winds 15-20 knots could gust up to 25 knots at times this afternoon. The strongest winds will be likely closer to the coast. During the passage of the cold front this evening, periodic gusts to around 25 knots are possible. Conditions should remain below SCA thresholds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day will increase in coverage tonight. Friday through Monday...Expect SW winds of 10 to 15 KT Friday to become N to NW 10 KT or less Friday night int Saturday and veer to the SW by Sat night. Speeds may briefly increase to around 15 KT Sunday night as a front works into the area. By Monday, speeds of 10 KT or less are expected but wind directions will likely vary as the frontal position oscillates in response to small scale effects like the sea breeze. Seas will generally be 4 ft or less. No flags this period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...31 LONG TERM...31 AVIATION...21 MARINE...ILM