041
FXUS62 KILM 051046
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
646 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity and storm coverage will increase over the next couple
days before a Thursday night or Friday morning cold front. The
weekend will bring seasonable temperatures and rain-free
conditions, with low rain chances returning on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes with the 7 AM EDT update. Main update was
to sky and associated temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The overall pressure pattern remains similar today. Temperatures
will be in the upper 80s to near 90, slightly cooler along the
coast where a sea breeze will develop this afternoon. Tuned
highs to be nearly identical to yesterday`s observations
including a downward adjustment at MYR. Better mid level
saturation and a slightly degraded subsidence inversion should
lead to a better chance of showers and storms this afternoon
along the I-95 corridor. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms will diminish toward sunset. Dry near-surface air near
the coast should discourage sea breeze showers during the early
afternoon.

A weak shortwave approaching the coast and offshore waters this
evening may lead to the development of additional showers and
storms. Not expecting any meaningful weather impact to the
immediate coast, but a brief, isolated shower can`t be ruled
out. Warm and humid with overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Previous thinking remains on track for Thursday, with scattered
to numerous late day showers and thunderstorms expected with a
mid-level shortwave trough traversing the area ahead of an
approaching sfc cold front. The frontal forcing is not
particularly strong however - and note temps Friday are quite
similar to those of Thursday. SPC continues to not outlook the
local area for severe weather, as stability and shear profiles
are modest. Guidance continues to favor quicker timing with the
front Thursday night, with SSW winds veering to the W along with
decreasing cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Continuing with a dry forecast for Friday into the weekend.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the
sea breeze Friday but capped PoPs just below 20% as deep-layer
moisture will be lacking and most CAMs are dry. Weak sfc high
pressure then builds in from the west over the weekend as zonal
flow aloft transitions to cyclonic as a broad upr-level low
builds into the NE CONUS. Rain chances return Monday and Tuesday
as lobes of vorticity swing around the low, the details of
which remain unclear/low confidence this far out, so PoPs
remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. Isolated showers and storms are expected this afternoon,
mainly impacting inland areas. A few showers may develop this
evening along the coast. S-SW winds increase today, gusting up
to 20 knots along the coast this afternoon. Remaining 10-15
knots this evening. Patchy stratus possible overnight,
especially along the coast.

Extended Outlook... Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more
widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure offshore will maintain southerly
winds today and tonight. Seas around 2 feet. Enhanced gusts are
likely along the coast due to an afternoon sea breeze. Showers
and storms increase in coverage this evening and overnight.
Southerly winds will increase overnight ahead of an approaching
cold front. Gusts up to 20-25 knots are possible before sunrise
on Thursday. Conditions should remain below SCA thresholds
despite building seas up to 3-4 feet.

Thursday through Sunday...SSW winds up to 20 kt Thursday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front.
Occasional gusts up to ~25 kt are possible but a SCA is not
anticipated. The front crosses the area around Friday, but with
weak CAA following the front winds should be no higher than ~15
kt into Saturday and Sunday. Seas mainly 2-4 ft through the
period, up to 5 ft Thursday night; mainly wind wave-driven.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21