Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
070
FNUS72 KILM 211028
FWSILM
Spot Forecast for Carolina Beach State Park Rx...North Carolina State Parks
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
628 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will prevail bringing dry weather to the area. The sea breeze
will increase winds a bit this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon.
Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.
Fog potential for tonight is High.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........66 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east
in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 15 mph.
Max vent rate.......Poor (28694 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............37.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31 9 7 13 10 10 9 8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69 71 73 74 75 74 74 74
RH..............77 71 69 67 66 68 69 70
20 FT wind dir..NE NE NE E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT wind gust.12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9
Transp wind dir.NE NE E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.14 14 15 15 14 14 14 15
Stability.......B B B B B B B B
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
ADI.............29 34 37 35 33 33 34 37
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.22 26 29 28 25 26 26 29
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...001 004 004 004 003 003 003 001
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog
overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 8 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Min mixing hgt......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 15 mph.
Min vent rate.......Poor (2292 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Min ADI.............2.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........10 12 13 14 14 15 16 18 20 26 32 38
Weather cov..... PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY PTY
Weather type.... FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG FOG
Tstm cov........
Temp............73 71 68 67 66 64 64 64 63 63 63 63
RH..............73 78 86 91 95 98 99 100 100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E NE N
20 FT wind spd..8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0
20 FT wind gust.12 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 2
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp wind dir.E E E E E SE SE E E E E NE
Transp wind spd.14 12 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 5
Stability.......B E F F F F F F F F F F
LVORI...........3 4 5 6 6 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
ADI.............34 8 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.26 23 11 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 2
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Sfc pres (in)...001 001 002 002 002 004 004 004 004 004 004 005
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog early
in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph
in the afternoon.
Max mixing hgt......1600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 5 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to
15 mph late in the afternoon.
Max vent rate.......Poor (14304 mph-ft).
Max LVORI...........9.
Max ADI.............19.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........43 45 41 33 23 12
Weather cov.....PATCHY PATCHY
Weather type....FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............62 66 75 80 81 80
RH..............100 95 73 63 61 64
20 ft wind......N 1 N 1 NE 2 E 3 SE 5 SE 6
20 ft wind gust.2 3 3 5 8 10
Mix hgt (ft)....500 700 1300 1500 1200 1200
Transport wind..N 6 N 7 NE 7 NE 8 SE 9 S 12
Stability.......F A A A A B
LVORI...........9 6 3 2 2 2
ADI.............3 7 11 15 14 17
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate mph-ft/1K.3 5 8 12 11 13
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Sfc pres (in)...30.05 30.10 30.10 30.11 30.07 30.07
$$
Forecaster...Bright
Requested by...Jesse Anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414803.0/ILM
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jesse.Anderson@ncparks.gov