436
FXUS61 KILN 181957
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
357 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level disturbance and an unstable airmass will lead to
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
portions of the region this evening. Much above normal
temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected for Sunday
and Monday, with a chance of showers and storms returning as
early as Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and
storms is likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, with slightly
cooler conditions for the second half of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Mid level shortwave evident on water vapor over East Central
Ohio. This feature along with instability (CAPE around 1000
J/KG) and low level convergence was leading to the development
of scattered convection mainly over ILN/s eastern counties.

DCAPE values around 900 J/KG will create a favorable environment
for isold gusty winds. Any convection that does develop will be
short lived due to the rather weak wind flow.

With the loss of heating this convection will dissipate this
evening. Lows tonight drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Light northerly low level flow will likely lead to the
development of patchy fog overnight. With some drying today -
conditions are less favorable and therefore do not expect fog
to be as impactful as what we observed this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Narrow mid level and surface ridges to build into the area
Sunday. This will allow for dry and mostly sunny sky conditions.
A warm day is in store for the region with highs generally in
the mid 80s.

The mid level ridge axis looks to continue protecting the area
from pcpn Sunday night. Axis of weak instability will slip into
areas to the north around the periphery of the ridge. Have a few
mid level clouds spilling into the northwest with lows from 60
to 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm conditions with highs in the 80s will be in place Monday and
Tuesday with the potential for a few pop up showers and
thunderstorms.  A cold front will approach on Wednesday and move
through Wednesday night into Thursday.  There will be the potential
for severe weather on Wednesday.  There is still some uncertainty
with the strength of this system and timing.  Due to this, held off
on adding to the HWO at this time until more details are resolved.

After the passage of the front cooler will conditions will be in
place for Thursday with highs generally in the 70s.  There is still
model variance and uncertainty for Friday into Saturday on whether
a cooler and drier pattern will set up or whether there will be a
surge in moisture from the south.  Continued to limit precipitation
chances to the chance category until models come more in line.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog has lifted to a VFR cumulus deck. A few showers or perhaps a
thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon. The best
threat/coverage looks to occur across central Ohio - where low
end moderate instability exists along with weak low level
convergence. Due to the limited coverage have not mentioned pcpn
in the TAFs at this time.

Any pcpn and clouds will decrease quickly early this evening.
Light east to northeast winds will become variable/calm
overnight. Mostly clear skies and light winds will lead to
some patchy fog development overnight. Have MVFR vsby
restrictions at KCVG, KDAY, KLUK with IFR conditions at KILN and
KLUK.

Ridging over the area Sunday with fog improving quickly after
sunrise. Once fog improves VFR conditions are expected thru the
remainder of the TAF forecast period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs, along with thunderstorms, will be possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...AR