Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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220 FXUS61 KILN 040133 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 933 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... As high pressure moves away from the area, southerly flow will bring warmer and more humid conditions. A cold front will approach from the west and cross the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. A somewhat cooler and drier airmass will move in for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... No major changes from the afternoon forecast. Daytime cumulus has nearly completely dissipated, with only scattered cirrus around the area this evening. With light flow and mostly clear skies, expect valley fog to be quite efficient in developing through the overnight. Boundary layer is drier than yesterday evening so widespread dense fog is not expected. Temperatures are generally in the 60s overnight with some upper 50s possible in river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Fairly sharp mid level ridge will extend from the Carolina coast into the Great Lakes during the period. Weak short wave energy will be riding up the ridge Tuesday afternoon ahead of a more substantial short wave that will push into the area late Tuesday night. The combination of the weak lead impulse along with daytime heating will result in scattered showers and storms pushing into the Tri-State later Tuesday afternoon. These should diminish during the evening as instability decreases. But additional showers and thunderstorms will start to move in late Tuesday night with the stronger short wave. Temperatures will rise into the mid 80s on Tuesday with some spots possibly getting into the upper 80s. It will be warm and humid Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A surface cold front and upper level trough will be moving through the Ohio Valley at some point Wednesday night. Earlier guidance was originally hinting at FROPA more in the Wednesday or Wednesday evening timeframe, but the timing is shifting a bit later. This means the area is now expected to be in the warm sector ahead of the approaching system on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely during the day especially when peak heating (and instability) overlaps increasing shear and forcing during the afternoon. Showers and storms could then linger into the overnight prior to FROPA. Conditions remain warm and humid on southerly flow until the cold front passes through. Thursday should feature descent CAA for early June behind the front on westerly surface winds. Temperatures are expected to remain below early June averages into the start of next week as upper level troughing parks over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Periodic low end chances for rain are possible each day with upper level troughing across the region. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No major changes from the 18Z TAF. Scattered cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Some valley fog will likely result in visibility restrictions at KLUK between 06Z and 13Z. Cannot rule out a bit of mist at KILN as well. Other than that VFR with some cumulus redeveloping late in the period. Winds will be light southerly. There are some indications that remnant shower and thunderstorms activity may enter the area from the southwest late Tuesday evening (after 00Z Wednesday) so included a mention in the 30-hour CVG TAF. Still too far out to know how much thunderstorm coverage will occur. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday night into Wednesday with IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...McGinnis