Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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793 FXUS61 KILN 230617 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 217 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the work week and weekend. Temperatures are expected to trend above normal through the weekend before a stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday, which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning of the next work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Evening update... After a period of brief but rapid intensification, much of the thunderstorm activity has weakened across the area. The 00Z ILN RAOB provides a fairly confidence explanation as to why. 0-3 km shear of 8 knots simply did not allow for the updrafts to organize after the initial development. Outflow boundaries were observed moving west and north away from the storm, indicating a more "pulse-like" thunderstorm mode. The deeper layer shear briefly allowed storms to organize, producing isolated severe criteria hail, however, this was short lived even though there remained plentiful CAPE. Throughout the rest of the evening, maintained a slight chance for thunderstorms along the boundary for the next few hours before limiting it to showers overnight. Added a mention for patchy fog along and south of the front with clearing of mid- level clouds and low-level moisture lingering around the front. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/... A slight cooldown is forecast on Thursday, but temperatures still trend slightly above seasonal normals. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be lower on Thursday, but still linger given the stalled, weak frontal boundary laying across our CWA. Locations north of I-70 have the best chance to remain dry all day, and will also experience slightly lower temps and dewpoints. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered storm develop still possible throughout the day, particularly in the afternoon and evening when we are near peak diurnal heating. Boundary continues to lift north as a warm front Thursday night. However, shower/storm coverage will become less extensive Thursday night. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... In westerly flow aloft, a weak mid level short wave will progress east across the Ohio Valley later Friday afternoon into Friday night. Some weak destabilization through the afternoon on Friday will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a better chance overspreading the area heading into Friday evening as the short wave moves in. Pcpn chances will then diminish heading into Saturday as we get on the back side of the short wave. Another mid level short wave will lift northeast into the Ohio Valley during the day on Sunday as a stronger secondary short wave/mid level low pivots northeast out of the mid Mississippi Valley and into the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday. This will allow for an associated surface low to lift northeast from the central Plains on Sunday into the central Great Lakes through the day on Monday. Increasing moisture/forcing ahead of this system will lead to developing showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday night and continuing into the day on Monday. Given the strengthening wind fields and track of the surface low, some severe storms will be possible, especially later Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. An upper level trough will eventually settle in across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through early to mid next week. Additional embedded mid level short waves rotating through the trough will keep some lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the long term period. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend with daytime highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A more seasonable airmass will then move into the region through early to mid next week with daytime highs mostly in the lower to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A cold front will slow down and eventually lay out west to east near the Ohio River by sunrise. Low level moisture ahead of the front may bring a period of IFR/MVFR ceilings and some MVFR visibilities. Winds will shift to the northwest/north, then weaken and become light east/southeast during the morning hours. For today, the frontal boundary will remain somewhat quasi- stationary. An embedded mid level disturbance will ripple east this morning, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms to far southern locations (mainly along and south of the Ohio River). For this afternoon, with daytime heating and the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the region, along with another weak mid level disturbance, will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Predominate conditions will be VFR but lower conditions (MVFR/IFR) could occur in thunderstorms. Winds will become light southerly. For tonight, convection in the evening will wane through the night as mid level disturbance moves off to the east and instability diminishes. Weak frontal boundary will begin to slowly move north as a warm front. Models suggest that another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings and perhaps visibilities may develop between 06Z and 12Z. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Sunday. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Thursday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Clark NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...Clark LONG TERM...JGL AVIATION...Hickman