037
FXUS61 KILN 210516
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
116 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures to continue today with a few showers or storms
returning Tuesday. The next widespread chance for showers and
storms is likely Wednesday into Thursday with the approach and
passage of a cold front. Slightly cooler conditions are in store
for the end of workweek, although there may be additional
chances for showers and storms Friday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Recent satellite imagery depicting high level cirrus moving over
the region along with a mid level deck associated with the
shortwave (now moving through Michigan). So far, all radar
returns have been north of our CWA, where the more robust
forcing is. Think the area will remain mostly dry overnight into
Tuesday morning.

Overnight lows still on track to fall into low/mid 60s,
depending on whether thickest cloud cover settles.

Previous discussion-->
Mid level ridge axis to continue
settling slightly south and east. Shortwave over WI to dampen
out as it tracks thru the Great Lakes around the periphery of
the ridge this evening. Most of the area will remain dry with an
isold shower or storm clipping the far northern counties into
the early evening.

Scattered diurnally driven cumulus clouds will wane with sunset.
Another shortwave over the Mid MS Valley to pivot thru the area
overnight. Expect to see some high and mid level clouds with
this feature. Can not rule out a shower spilling into the west
overnight but have continued a dry forecast going with the
consensus.

Another warm and humid overnight period with temps dipping into
the lower and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Another warm day is on tap for the area Tuesday. Mid level
shortwave tracks east of the area in the morning with some minor
height rises in its wake. Temperatures to generally top out in
the upper 80s. An isolated 90 degree reading is possible at the
typical warm spots.

While there will be slight chance for a few afternoon or evening
showers or thunderstorms across ILN/s northern counties most
locations will remain dry.

Mid level ridging should keep most of Tuesday night dry. As flow
backs ahead of trof have allowed for slight chance pops into the
west late. Mild lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active long term period is expected with multiple systems
moving through the region. There will be the potential for
ongoing weakening convection at the start of the day on
Wednesday. As is typical, how quickly this precipitation
decreases and how widespread it is will have an impact on
convective development during the afternoon hours. There is
expected to be some thunderstorm development during the
afternoon hours and then continuing into the evening and
overnight as a cold front continues to approach and move into
the region. Damaging winds will be the primary threat along with
heavy rain and subsequent flooding potential. In addition, an
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. The front lingers and lays
out across the region on Thursday keeping the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

Models are finally coming more into line for Friday with
additional moisture working into the area from the south and
bringing additional thunderstorms. While the details still need
to be resolved, models continue with an active weather pattern
through the weekend and into Memorial Day. With the stormy
pattern temperatures will be dependent on convection, however in
general expect high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through the
long term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCT/BKN convective blowoff cirrus continues to spill into the
region, with a few patches of 6-8kft clouds also percolating
about the area. Aside from some BR leading to MVFR, or even
brief IFR, VSBYs at KLUK in the several hour period around
sunrise, VFR conditions will prevail through daybreak and
beyond. Some diurnally-driven VFR Cu will sprout about again
around 15-16z, with a bit more coverage expected today owing to
better LL moisture content.

Cannot completely rule out a spotty SHRA/TSRA during the peak
heating hours between 18z-23z, especially near KCVG/KLUK/KILN,
but coverage should remain fairly limited and did not yet have
the confidence to include even a VC at these sites. The better
chance for more widespread SHRA/TSRA (albeit still somewhat low)
will arrive after 06z Wednesday in the form of a weakening MCS
that should move into the ILN FA toward the end of the KCVG
30-hr TAF.

Light southerly flow at 5kts or less will increase to 10-12kts
and become more southwesterly by/past 15z. Could even see a few
gusts in the 15-20kt range before gustiness subsides once again
toward/beyond sunset.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely at times Wednesday into Thursday
morning. MVFR CIGs possible Wednesday into Thursday. Additional
chances for thunderstorms will return Friday and Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CA/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC