204
FXUS61 KILN 180541
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
141 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After showers that remain possible through tonight and isolated
activity indicated briefly Saturday afternoon, a dry forecast is
in store through Tuesday night. With this dry period,
temperatures will increase relatively quickly and end up 10
degrees or slightly more from climatological normals on Tuesday
and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A dense fog advisory has been issued for southern parts of the
local area due to recent obs and satellite trends showing an
expansion of the fog and low visibility.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Some few indications of widely scattered/isolated showers are
apparent for Saturday. If this is the case, earlier development
should be in southern forecast area, Afternoon heating will
prompt what showers that may occur later in the day, at any
location in the CWA, ending quickly with the setting sun.

Highs will warm fairly uniformly to around 80, and lows will be
again within a degree or so on either side of 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and warm conditions will start out the long term Sunday
into Monday with high temperatures in the 80s. A little better
instability develops on Tuesday and therefore there will be the
potential for some pop up afternoon thunderstorms. These will
diminish with the loss of daytime heating. A brief lull in the
precipitation is expected before a cold front approaches and
moves through Wednesday into Thursday. There is still some
uncertainty with timing and strength of this system, however
cannot rule out the potential for some severe weather Wednesday
into Wednesday night. Cooler air will move into the region after
the passage of the front on Thursday. There is quite a bit of
model variability on Friday with either a cool dry solution or
with moisture being drawn up into the area from the south. Due
to this limited any precipitation chances to the chance category
for Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The earlier SHRA activity has waned locally, leaving in its
wake clearing skies amidst a very saturated/stagnant LL
environment. This is already allowing BR/FG to develop and
expand rather quickly, with VSBYs already trending to IFR/LIFR
for a few spots. Expect that the BR/FG will continue to expand
through daybreak, with the least favorable setup for central OH
sites of KCMH/KLCK where some lingering cloud cover may inhibit,
or at the very least delay, the onset of BR/FG development.
Elsewhere, expect LIFR/VLIFR VSBYs at the typical spots of
KLUK/KILN, with some IFR VSBYs eventually likely for KCVG/KDAY
as well closer to daybreak.

The BR/FG may evolve into a LIFR stratus deck/CIGs before
rapidly lifting to IFR, MVFR, and eventually VFR between about
13z-16z. SCT VFR Cu will prevail near/after 16z with a few
spotty SHRA/TSRA possible late afternoon into early evening.
Coverage of activity should be very spotty/ISO in nature, so
have kept terminals dry for now.

Light/VRB/calm winds will go more easterly and northeasterly
during the daytime before going back light/VRB/calm once again
toward the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ060>063-
     070>073-077>082-088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-
     059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC