391
FXUS61 KILN 040821
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
421 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
South flow over the Ohio Valley will be found ahead of a cold
front that crosses late Wednesday, along with increasing
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Westerly flow behind
the front will prevail through the first half of the weekend
until a southern system interacts with a surface low near Lake
Erie on Sunday, resulting in the next significant weather
system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southerly flow at the surface topped by southwest flow above it
will bring some warmer and potentially unstable air to the CWA.
Showers and some thunderstorms are progged to move from the
southwest into the Cincy metro area this afternoon and early
evening as mid level energy aids any thunderstorm development
here.

Highs will top out in the mid-upper 80s for most locations,
possibly a bit cooler in and south of metro Cincy given
increased potential for rain and cooling effect of cloud cover
ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The loss of insolation and direct daytime heating removes any
instability in the evening with showers decreasing in coverage
and storms also decreasing in intensity. Lower end pops are
necessary overnight as models do not have a consensus on how
this time frame evolves with regards to precip chances/timing.

Later overnight closer to daybreak, more components come
together to make showers and some thunderstorms work in from the
west. Afternoon instability is expected to be found closer to
northern/northeast CWA with mid level CAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg, interacting with a high moisture low level
environment and enough shear to see any individual cells that
develop maintain themselves for a longer period of time. These
showers and thunderstorms will become prevalent in the late
morning and afternoon.

Overnight lows in the upper 60s with moist air on southerly wind
and passing cloud cover. Wednesday`s highs will be muted given
the prevailing rainfall and be within a degree or two of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and associated cold front to pivot east
thru the region Wednesday evening. Warm and moist airmass ahead
of this front will support the development of with moderate
instability. This instability combined with deep layer shear
around 30 kts has the potential to support a few strong to
severe storms into the early evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat. As the front shifts to the east the potential
for precipitation will come to a temporary end.

Elongated mid level low to settle into the Great Lakes for the
end of the week. Have slight chance to chance pops Thursday and
Friday mainly across the northeast. Some model solution spread
is seen in the exact details but a little better consensus is
observed with energy swinging back westward as the low settles a
little south into the region this weekend into early next week.
Have slight chance for pcpn Saturday with a better chance
Sunday into Monday. Precipitation chances will need to be
increased Monday if the current trends continue with future
runs.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday with highs in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s. Readings look to trend below normal
by Friday with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s
and then near normal Saturday and Sunday when readings are
expected to top out between 75 and 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will be found through the morning hours, with a
light rain or scattered showers working in from the southwest
towards 18Z at CVG/LUK. The lighter precip is noted to be
falling from an AS deck, with a bit of a higher precip rate
noted from 21Z-00Z where a vsby restriction and lower yet still
vfr cig is forecast.

It`s entirely within reason that some of this rain could
maintain as it moves northeast but enough of the models are
quite bullish on even the occurrence of rain. Went with the
drier forecast and kept a generally higher AS deck as prevailing
sky.

South winds will pick up a little during the afternoon and
generally remain from that direction through the forecast.
Afternoon winds should remain under 10kt, but a few intermittent
obs could push 12kt, particularly under any showers falling from
the mid deck that very well get entrained by the drier air it
would be falling through.

Not saying it`s out of the realm, but tstorm activity at the
tail end of the CVG period was removed given few deterministic
models were painting any precip at this time. MOS guidance were
suggesting low cigs at CVG beginning a little before daybreak
Wednesday.

A lot will be determined as the day progresses with regards to
occurrence/placement of showers and potential of more
overnight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Wednesday with
IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into
Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Franks