499
FXUS63 KILX 310733
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure
  system will bring some showers and thunderstorms (80-90% chance)
  through central Illinois overnight tonight into late Saturday.
  Severe weather is not expected.

- After a dry Sunday, there are several more chances for rain are
  in the forecast through late Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Today will be dry and mostly sunny, as a high pressure system
continues to hang out over the Great Lakes region. A slow moving low
pressure system is over TX/OK currently and will gradually make its
way towards Illinois today. This low will bring the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms for overnight tonight (around midnight)
and will linger through late Saturday. Widespread coverage is seen
in the CAMs (NAM 3km, WRF-ARW) as the system moves in, with coverage
becoming more scattered by mid afternoon. Some weak instability
(~500 J/kg MLCAPE) will be in place, which will allow for some
thunderstorms. QPF for this system is low, compared to what we`ve
been seeing, with amounts of 0.5-1 in possible over a 24 hour
period. However, some isolated spots could see closer to 1.5 inches
where a stronger shower passes over. We are not expecting any severe
weather with this wave of precipitation.

Next week won`t be as dry as this previous week as a short wave and
cold front are set to move through. There are multiple rounds of
showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through the extended. Monday
into Tuesday, the showers should be mostly scattered as a weak short
wave passes overhead. Wednesday`s round of showers/t`storms will be
more widespread across central Illinois and will be associated with
a cold frontal passage. Come Thursday, the forecast looks to be dry
for the weekend.

Temperatures will warm back up into the 80s this weekend and will
last well into the new week. Highs won`t cool slightly (mid 70s)
until the cold front passes on Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
Lows will mainly range in the 60s through the 7 day period.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Another round of VFR TAFs with scattered cirrus tonight and
scattered cu Friday late morning to afternoon. Light
east winds tonight veer southeast by mid-morning and gust to
around 20 kt through late afternoon. A weather system moving in
from the southwest will bring increasing mid level clouds and a
few showers after 00z.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$