Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
860 FXUS63 KILX 301031 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 531 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and fair weather continues through the day Friday, with highs temperatures in the upper 70s. - Rain is likely Friday night through Saturday morning (70% chance). Modest accumulations are likely (60% chance of exceeding 0.25"), but heavy rain is not anticipated (less than 20% chance of exceeding 1"). - Additional rain chances exist early next week. At this stage, the severe thunderstorm potential appears low (less than 15% chance). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 It`s a quiet start to Thurs AM across the local area, as a 1024-mb sfc high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region. In the upper levels, a ridge axis was draped across the central Plains and will gradually shift east over the coming days. Today will feature light easterly winds, sunny skies, seasonably low dewpoints (in the 40s), and temperatures in the upper 70s. Much of the forecast through the weekend remains on track - dry weather prevails through the daytime hours on Fri, then an approaching shortwave leads to rain overspreading the area late Fri night into Sat. As the timing of this wave has come into better focus, PoPs have increased to 60-70% for Sat morning. QPF amounts also continue to trend upwards, with a 60% chance of exceeding 0.25", but heavy rain is unlikely, with less than a 20% chance of exceeding 1". That system should largely push east of the area by Sat night, resulting in mostly dry conditions on Sun. Into early next week, the upper pattern becomes more zonal allowing for additional disturbances to produce rain chances (60% on Monday, then 40% on Tues & Wed). The severe storm prospects aren`t zero next week, but the potential does appear rather low at this point. A closed upper low/associated cold front are responsible for the precip chances on Wed, and the upper flow is a bit stronger with that system (better shear), so Wed could be a day worth keeping an eye on for severe storms if sufficient instability develops. Aside from a cool down on Saturday due to rain/cloud cover, temperatures will gradually warm into early next week with highs in the mid 80s Sun-Wed. Looking out through the second week of June, significant heat impacts appear unlikely. That`s because the closed upper low that approaches during the middle of next week develops into a persistent feature over the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Locally, that will result in cyclonic (northwesterly) flow that keeps temps cooler than normal. The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook (valid June 6-12) has a 40-50% chance of below normal temperatures, and normal highs for that time of year are in the low 80s. Erwin && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Light winds will maintain an easterly component through the day, then gradually shift to southeasterly tonight. Scattered high clouds will increase in coverage after 00z. Erwin && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$