994
FXUS63 KILX 021542
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1042 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be a dry and nice day. Highs near 80 with partly
  cloudy skies.

- Monday through Wednesday night have several rounds of showers
  and thunderstorms on deck to move through. Some strong to severe
  thunderstorms could develop Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The latest surface map shows an area of high pressure is centered
over northern Illinois with a weak nearly stationary cool front
draped along the Ohio Valley this morning. Low stratus blankets a
majority of the area with pockets of clearing already occuring in
western Illinois. Clouds should continue to gradually scatter out
some from west to east today, allowing temperatures to warm close to
seasonal normals for early June. Light radar returns noted in
eastern Illinois tied to some subtle lift over the cloud bearing
layer may trigger a few isolated sprinkles through this afternoon,
but shouldn`t amount to much precipitation.

NMA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Today, slight ridging builds over our western CWA. There is some
patchy fog across central Illinois this morning. It should dissipate
as the sun rises. This will give us a nice, calm, and pretty day to
enjoy. Highs near 80, lows in the low-to-mid 60s, and partly cloudy
skies are expected today.

The next round of rain comes Monday through late Wednesday. The
forcing for Monday into Tuesday`s event comes from a shortwave
moving overhead. Wednesday has cold front expected to pass through
the Midwest extending out of a low in Canada. Monday`s and Tuesday`s
risk for severe weather is looking a bit better now, with Tuesday
possibly more so.

MONDAY MESOSCALE DETAILS --- Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and dew
points near 70 will be in place. MUCAPE by the afternoon is more
than decent (1500-3000 J/kg). Surface to 500mb bulk shear is
basically nonexistent (0-20 knots). Mid-level lapse rates are
around 7 C/km by 21z. Plenty of bouyancy and mid level lapse rates
could support short lived strong to severe thunderstorms, with
hail as a primary threat. A wind threat exists when a storm
collapses and pushes its gust front out.

After the cold front Wednesday, there could be a couple chances for
showers and/or thunderstorms over the weekend. More details will be
unveiled as we move into the middle of the week. High temps will
hang in the 80s through most of this new week.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Some sites have longer TAF due to the ceiling changes through the
morning. There are LIFR to VFR conditions across central IL this
morning. Sites will continue to bounce from IFR to MVFR early in the
period. Patchy dense fog, and low ceilings are playing a big role.
By mid morning (15z), the fog should dissipate as the sun rises and
peaks through the low clouds. The low cloud deck will make its way
out of the area by the afternoon (18-22z), starting with SPI/PIA and
ending with CMI. By 22z, VFR conditions will be in place for all
sites.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$