Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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499 FXUS63 KILX 310733 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weak instability associated with a slow-moving low pressure system will bring some showers and thunderstorms (80-90% chance) through central Illinois overnight tonight into late Saturday. Severe weather is not expected. - After a dry Sunday, there are several more chances for rain are in the forecast through late Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Today will be dry and mostly sunny, as a high pressure system continues to hang out over the Great Lakes region. A slow moving low pressure system is over TX/OK currently and will gradually make its way towards Illinois today. This low will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms for overnight tonight (around midnight) and will linger through late Saturday. Widespread coverage is seen in the CAMs (NAM 3km, WRF-ARW) as the system moves in, with coverage becoming more scattered by mid afternoon. Some weak instability (~500 J/kg MLCAPE) will be in place, which will allow for some thunderstorms. QPF for this system is low, compared to what we`ve been seeing, with amounts of 0.5-1 in possible over a 24 hour period. However, some isolated spots could see closer to 1.5 inches where a stronger shower passes over. We are not expecting any severe weather with this wave of precipitation. Next week won`t be as dry as this previous week as a short wave and cold front are set to move through. There are multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms in the forecast through the extended. Monday into Tuesday, the showers should be mostly scattered as a weak short wave passes overhead. Wednesday`s round of showers/t`storms will be more widespread across central Illinois and will be associated with a cold frontal passage. Come Thursday, the forecast looks to be dry for the weekend. Temperatures will warm back up into the 80s this weekend and will last well into the new week. Highs won`t cool slightly (mid 70s) until the cold front passes on Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Lows will mainly range in the 60s through the 7 day period. Copple && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Another round of VFR TAFs with scattered cirrus tonight and scattered cu Friday late morning to afternoon. Light east winds tonight veer southeast by mid-morning and gust to around 20 kt through late afternoon. A weather system moving in from the southwest will bring increasing mid level clouds and a few showers after 00z. 25 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$