Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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021 FXUS63 KILX 301742 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1242 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and fair weather continues through the day Friday, with highs temperatures in the upper 70s. - Rain is likely Friday night through Saturday morning (70% chance). Modest accumulations are likely (60% chance of exceeding 0.25"), but heavy rain is not anticipated (less than 20% chance of exceeding 1"). - Additional rain chances exist early next week. At this stage, the severe thunderstorm potential appears low (less than 15% chance). && .UPDATE... Issued at 1001 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 High pressure is centered over Lake Michigan late this morning with ridging extending across Central Illinois into the lower Mississippi Valley. Fair weather will be the result today with mainly just some high cirrus filtering in gradually from the west through the day. Temps are on track to warm into the mid to upper 70s this afternoon. Deubelbeiss && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 It`s a quiet start to Thurs AM across the local area, as a 1024-mb sfc high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region. In the upper levels, a ridge axis was draped across the central Plains and will gradually shift east over the coming days. Today will feature light easterly winds, sunny skies, seasonably low dewpoints (in the 40s), and temperatures in the upper 70s. Much of the forecast through the weekend remains on track - dry weather prevails through the daytime hours on Fri, then an approaching shortwave leads to rain overspreading the area late Fri night into Sat. As the timing of this wave has come into better focus, PoPs have increased to 60-70% for Sat morning. QPF amounts also continue to trend upwards, with a 60% chance of exceeding 0.25", but heavy rain is unlikely, with less than a 20% chance of exceeding 1". That system should largely push east of the area by Sat night, resulting in mostly dry conditions on Sun. Into early next week, the upper pattern becomes more zonal allowing for additional disturbances to produce rain chances (60% on Monday, then 40% on Tues & Wed). The severe storm prospects aren`t zero next week, but the potential does appear rather low at this point. A closed upper low/associated cold front are responsible for the precip chances on Wed, and the upper flow is a bit stronger with that system (better shear), so Wed could be a day worth keeping an eye on for severe storms if sufficient instability develops. Aside from a cool down on Saturday due to rain/cloud cover, temperatures will gradually warm into early next week with highs in the mid 80s Sun-Wed. Looking out through the second week of June, significant heat impacts appear unlikely. That`s because the closed upper low that approaches during the middle of next week develops into a persistent feature over the Upper Midwest into next weekend. Locally, that will result in cyclonic (northwesterly) flow that keeps temps cooler than normal. The CPC 8 to 14 day outlook (valid June 6-12) has a 40-50% chance of below normal temperatures, and normal highs for that time of year are in the low 80s. Erwin && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Surface high pressure across the Great Lakes will maintain dry conditions throughout the forecast period, though a few cumulus around FL050 that popped up on satellite over the past couple hours will continue to percolate near and south of I-72 this afternoon. Mid to high clouds will increase tonight into tomorrow, while light and fickle winds increase and become more steadily out of the southeast tomorrow morning, gusting over 20 kt after around 15z (10am CDT). Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$