Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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494 FXUS63 KIND 290643 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 243 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low chance for showers today, primarily from mid-morning to early this afternoon over the eastern half of central IN - Below normal temperatures today and tonight; Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s with overnight temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s - Dry and Seasonable Wednesday through Friday, Rain chances Saturday into Sunday && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across all of central IN with widespread clouds over portions of eastern WI, southern MI, and northern IN. There clouds are associated with a mid- level shortwave which is expected to progress towards the area leading to enhanced cloud cover. Look for clouds to increase in coverage between towards daybreak and persist through at least the early afternoon hours. Weak forcing from the disturbance and marginal low-level moisture will support the potential for showers, mainly across the eastern half of central IN from mid-morning to early afternoon. The shortwave is expected to move east by this afternoon with surface high pressure building in which should allow for clouds to gradually begin clearing. With clouds clearing out some, this could be enough to promote a few diurnal showers through the afternoon from daytime heating. Most locations are going to remain dry during the afternoon, but will keep very low rain chances over far east counties. Look for quiet weather conditions tonight as surface high pressure continues to build in. Light winds and clear skies may allow for patchy fog development. Enhanced cloud cover early in the day combined with broad upper troughing and N/NW flow will keep temperatures below normal in the upper 60s to low 70s. Light winds and clear skies may allow for patchy fog development late overnight. Good radiational cooling conditions will result in chilly lows around the mid 40s to low 50s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 239 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Ridging will start building in late Thursday and will bring temperatures up closer to climo (mid-upper 70s) by Friday and Saturday. Narrow moisture return ahead of the next shortwave trough will bring a chance of showers Saturday. The degree of forcing, moisture magnitude, and instability indicate generally light amounts. Multi-model ensemble mean rainfall amounts are around or just above a quarter inch, with only a couple of outliers near an inch. The background larger scale synoptic pattern will feature steadily rising heights and slight positive anomalies by the weekend and early next week, so temperatures will rise to slightly above climo during this period. Uncertainties emerge as ensemble spread grows with handling smaller scale features. One shortwave trough is reasonably well timed among the ensemble suite bringing increased rain chances early next week. It`s difficult at this time range to narrow down specific periods of greater chances. Most of the flow aloft will remain at higher latitudes, so shear is limited and organized severe storm threat appears low at this time. Days 8-14: Multi-model medium range ensemble mean shows a relatively strong signal for the time range of eastern troughing and western ridging. This should keep us below normal on both temperatures and precipitation. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 126 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024 Impacts: - MVFR ceilings expected to develop around 09-13Z and persist through midday. - Low chance for showers near IND around 14-17Z Discussion: MVFR ceilings are expected to develop around 09-13z due to a mid- level disturbance moving across the area. MVFR ceilings should persist through about midday before clouds lift and clear out in the afternoon. HUF/BMG may only see a few brief hours of MVFR conditions. There is a low chance IND/LAF could see brief IFR ceilings. In addition, isolated showers are possible near IND around 14-17z as the disturbance moves through. N/NW winds generally around 10 kts or less are expected through this evening. VFR conditions return this afternoon and winds will become very light tonight around 5 kts or less. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melo LONG TERM...BRB AVIATION...Melo