Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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531 FXUS63 KIND 011826 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 226 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms through tonight - Warmer next week with periodic thunderstorm chances. The best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Radar was showing widespread showers lifting north across all but the very far eastern parts of central Indiana within an area of isentropic lift on the 305K surface. Hi-Res soundings and condensation pressure deficits suggest far eastern sections will also soon saturate down soon supporting 80% plus PoPs for the remainder of the afternoon. An upper trough will move to the east of the area tonight and a ridge will build in in its wake. In addition, a surface system will move across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. As this occurs, the showers will decrease in coverage and end from west to east with perhaps a few morning showers lingering over far southeastern sections. Hi-Res soundings showing a saturated boundary overnight and weak surface pressure gradient supports light to calm winds. This will likely lead to low stratus and or fog. Soundings and ridging suggest there will be breaks in the cloud cover Sunday afternoon which should lead to temperatures bouncing back to the upper 70s and lowerr 80s. Meanwhile, the low clouds and fog suggest temperatures will not fall much futher than the lower 60s. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 224 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Sunday Night Through Tuesday. Quiet weather is expected for Sunday night into Monday with a brief period of upper level ridging ahead of a fairly active week of showers and thunderstorms. Late Sunday night an MCS is expected to initiate across the Central Plains and push into Iowa and Missouri towards Monday morning but this complex will dissipate before even arriving into Illinois but convective debris from the system is expected to reach the western counties Monday morning. An outflow boundary associated with this system may push as far as Indiana but that will be dependent on how far the MCS is able to push into Iowa. This scenario would allow for some convective initiation late Monday, but this looks to be the unlikely scenario with storms most likely staying to the west of the forecast area. The next round of thunderstorms is expected to initiate across Kansas Monday night with this system having a better chance but still unlikely to impact portions of western Indiana. Wednesday Through Saturday. Broad troughing is expected towards the middle and and of the week with weather being heavily influenced by residual outflow boundaries from the thunderstorms earlier in the week which keeps confidence in precipitation timing and chances fairly low. Towards the end of the week there is better model agreement in a much stronger upper level trough across the Great Lakes region bringing more robust northwesterly flow at the surface and aloft which will bring cooler conditions into the weekend. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Impacts: - Showers will continue before diminishing and ending overnight - MVFR and worse conditions to continue at KHUF and KBMG and start soon at KIND and KLAF - Small risk for embedded thunderstorms - Conditions to improve to VFR after 15z Sunday Discussion: Isentropic lift has lead to widespread showers. These showers and associated poor flying conditions will continue through the evening before dissipating and ending toward Sunday daybreak. Finally, conditions will improve to VFR toward midday Sunday. Winds will be SSE up to 12 knots this afternoon and then become very light to calm by late evening. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MK LONG TERM...White AVIATION...MK