065
FXUS63 KIWX 271827
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy skies give way to peeks of sun this evening before
  clouds return north of US-30 tonight. Showers are possible
  north of US-30 tonight as well.

- Another chance for showers and a non-severe thunderstorm or
  two will be possible Tuesday and a few lingering showers will
  be around east of IN-15 on Wednesday.

- Dry weather occurs Thursday and Friday.

- Hazardous swimming conditions for Lake Michigan beaches in La
  Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan today
  and then again Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

A broad trough anchored by an upper low in Central Canada is
situated across the Central CONUS. This trough contains various
broad areas of vorticity with one having pushed out of the area this
morning. Behind this, an area of subsidence sets up around midday
into the afternoon drying out the column into the evening. At this
point, a second shortwave rounds the base of the trough overhead and
provides more showers. While embedded thunder is possible,
instability is expected to be meager enough to keep this just rain.
Yet another shortwave rounds the trough for Tuesday. Now, behind the
first shortwave, there may be enough breaks in the clouds to allow
for the generation of instability for thunderstorms Tuesday midday
and afternoon, but shear will be lacking to make it sub-severe. By
Wednesday, the back edge of the forcing of the unsettled weather can
be seen, but it`ll likely take until the evening to get here. So,
expect areas east of IN-15 to have clouds and lingering rain and
maybe an embedded storm. This is in contrast to areas west of IN-15
that have a better chance to see breaks in the clouds and a drying
trend.

The best chance to break out of the unsettled weather occurs on
Thursday as the mid level ridge that was knocking on our door on
Wednesday finally nudges its way in. This will provide dry weather
for Thursday as surface high pressure is overhead. High pressure
slides eastward on Friday allowing our 70 degree temperatures in the
first part of the week to trend warmer for Friday, reaching the mid
70s.

Next Saturday could start the day cloudy as a warm front attempts to
move northward through the area. As it does so, rain, without
instability moves through. This may stunt warming and could make 80
degrees harder to come by. Temperatures on Sunday and chances for
showers/storms will be dependent on if that warm front can rise
north. Will handle Sunday with the NBM with lower confidence on
outcomes this far out, but just know that this is a changeable
day forecast-wise.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Areas of drizzle and showers continue to move through northern
Indiana as of midday. The upper-level trough responsible is
departing such that dry weather should resume and ceilings
should improve. However, a second trough is waiting upstream,
currently over Iowa. This renews the chance for showers tonight.
The latest time-height cross sections indicate at leave MFVR
ceilings for a time late tonight and into Tuesday.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Brown