Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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273 FXUS63 KIWX 250744 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 344 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight chances for rain showers and a few thunderstorms into this morning. Highs today climbing into the 70s and low 80s inland, and the 60s near Lake Michigan. - Greater chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and night with both severe storms and possibly heavy rain/hydro issues existing. - Lingering showers/embedded thunder may impact activities on Memorial Day through Wednesday. - Moderate Swim Risk for Lake Michigan beaches in La Porte County in Indiana and Berrien County in Michigan on Memorial Day through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 256 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 After a convectively messy evening, only a few showers/thunderstorms remain over the area as the cold front is currently pushing into the western parts of the CWA. These showers with a few rumbles of thunder will remain possible as the frontal boundary continues to move eastward through the morning and into the early afternoon for areas east of I-69. Clearing skies will move into the area on the heels of the frontal passage and by later this afternoon mostly sunny skies will be in place along with a break in the activity for this holiday weekend. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 60s for areas around Lake Michigan with temperatures a bit warmer inland with 70s to low 80s. Another disturbance will move into the Great Lakes region from the Plains on Sunday and ahead of the circulation another warm front will move in from the southwest and bring a surge of moist air into the area with dew points going from the 40s to the 60s. Slightly warmer temperatures will also move in with highs on Sunday getting into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Gusty winds and showers will also accompany the arrival of the warm frontal boundary as it moves into the area. Surface based CAPES will again increase to around 1000 to 1200 J/kg and decent mid- level lapse rates around 7 deg/km will be available by Sunday afternoon. 0-3km Bulk shear values up to 40 kts will also be available on Sunday afternoon. As a vigorous cold front moves into the area on Sunday this will allow thunderstorm activity to develop. SPC currently has a majority of our CWA in a slight risk for Sunday. So strong to severe storms will once again be possible. Wind will again be the main threat but large hail and a few tornadoes would not be out of the question. With the trough remaining over the Great Lakes region mostly cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and chances for showers/embedded thunder will remain for Memorial Day into the mid week. Highs each day through Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s across the area with the coolest temperatures near Lake Michigan. By late Wednesday, broad ridging over the central CONUS will begin to build into the area bringing a warming trend and mainly dry weather conditions into next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 148 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the terminal through the period. There are a few showers lingering around tonight (especially east of KSBN), with more focused activity expected with the incoming cold front later this morning into early afternoon. Have added a mention for additional showers with VCTS and MVFR ceilings as we do get an area of steeper mid level lapse rates moving in with the cold front- which will pass through KSBN between 9-13z/KFWA between 12-16z. High pressure builds in rapidly behind the exiting cold front this afternoon into the overnight, shifting winds to the west- northwest and putting an end to any precipitation chances. Winds will be light and variable overnight. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Steinwedel DISCUSSION...Andersen AVIATION...MCD