Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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288 FXUS63 KIWX 292316 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 716 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions return tonight through early Saturday with near or slightly below normal temperatures. - Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist Saturday into the middle of next week, focused on Sat/Sat night and Wed/Thu. - Above normal temperatures and increasing humidity will dominate Sunday through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 The trough that brought the somewhat cooler conditions and rounds of showers and storms will exit to the east over the next 12 to 24 hours. The back edge of the cold pool will continue to generate steep lapse rates and allow for widely scattered showers and storms for a few more hours, mainly for eastern parts of the area (along/east of Indian 15/US 131. One more disturbance will pass through the trough, with the only impacts being a delay in increasing low level WAA and continuation of somewhat below normal temps into Thursday. A return to above normal temperatures commences Friday and persists well into next week as upper level ridging increases to 580 dm or greater with highs climbing into the 80s. A series of disturbances will move from the SW US into the Ohio Valley with med range models struggling somewhat on overall strength and moisture content with each one. The first arrives Saturday with at least a chance for chance for showers and thunderstorms. While surface dewpoints will increase back into the 50s and maybe even low 60s, poor lapse rates and limited shear should preclude any strong/severe storm threat at this point, especially given the weakening nature of the wave. GFS/EC/GEM all have their own ideas on handling of several weaker waves that pass across the area between Sunday and Tuesday, with the GFS strongest Mon Ngt with one of these waves. Given dewpoints will likely reside somewhere in the upper 50s to mid 60s, if any of these waves can interact with the diurnally driven instability each afternoon/eve, a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out with given the lack of strong forcing or convergence across the area, no big weather events are expected. A more significant northern stream trough will moves towards the western Great Lakes towards the end of the period. Ridging off the east coast looks to maintain overall control, with most of the effects staying NW of the area. That being said, a weak front will swing into the region late Wednesday which could provide somewhat better chances for showers and storms given at least some convergence with the front. Chc pops reside in this period to handle for the time being. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024 As the low circulation continues to move southeast out of the area and ridging begins to push further east over both TAF sites with the diurnal heating waning this evening any remaining convective showers/thunder will subside and winds will begin to weaken. Clouds will also begin to clear out. With low temperatures cooling to around 3-5 degree dew point depressions some patchy low lying fog will be possible. Not super confident in mentioning fog in the TAFs as a continued reduction in moisture will also keep the dew point depressions around that 3-5 degree range. However, some patchy low lying fog would not be a complete surprise away from the TAF sites which will be kept just a tad warmer for those locations than other outlying areas with urban heat island effects in play. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Andersen