Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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021 FXUS63 KIWX 011045 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 645 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers slowly arriving through today, lingering into the overnight hours. - Frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms next week. - Turning cooler late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 An upper-level low over Missouri early this morning will continue to slowly track east-northeast. Moisture transport from the Gulf is ample, per water vapor imagery, with a comma shape developing on satellite as the surface low eventually occludes. High pressure lingering over the Mid-Atlantic has slowed the time of arrival for rain today, but I do expect rain to reach northwest Ohio prior to sunset. The chance for thunder has been pretty mediocre leading up to this moment, and parameters remain poor. Therefore, have jumped off the porch and removed thunder for this event. Circling back to moisture transport for a moment, HREF PWATS have decreased slightly over the past 24 hours but remain unseasonably high near 1.5 inches (90th percentile for DTX sounding climatology is 1.31 inches; 1.48 inches at ILX). Boundary parallel flow along the cold/occluding front will present some risk of training but in the absence of convection, the overall flood risk low. Storm total rainfall is forecast to range from about 0.50 to 1 inch. Showers taper off soon after sunrise Sunday over northwest Ohio; dry elsewhere. The in-house blend remains overzealous for the chance of showers and storms Monday associated with a low moving through the far Northern Plains. Surface high pressure locally looks to keep this rain chance at bay until at least sunset over northwest Indiana. This will be a target of opportunity in the days ahead. For now, have done my best to reduce POPs with neighbors for the daytime Monday. The better chance for showers and storms is overnight. A ridge off the southwest US amplifies in the days that follow, sending active west and northwest flow through the Midwest. This is punctuated by a deep trough sweeping through Wednesday, with a widespread chance of showers and storms followed by cooler temperatures to finish the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 645 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Midlevel trough and associated low level moisture convergence will generate rain across the area late this afternoon. Decided to remove thunder based on bulk of latest guidance indicating virtually no instability. However, still expect a relatively quick transition to low MVFR and IFR ceilings this evening. Concensus guidance still indicating LIFR ceilings possible at KSBN overnight but will hold just above for now. Slightly higher ceilings anticipated at KFWA but IFR still appears increasingly likely for a time tonight. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Brown AVIATION...AGD