Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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204 FXUS63 KIWX 301710 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 110 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and tranquil through Friday with highs in the 70s and lows tonight in the 40s. - The next chance of rain arrives on Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible but severe weather is not expected. - Typical summer pattern heading into next week with warm conditions and periodic chances for scattered showers and storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 High amplitude/short wavelength ridge will bring a welcome, albeit brief, return to dry/quiet weather today and Friday. There is one last trough rotating through the Lower Great Lakes today but northerly flow has advected a much drier and more stable airmass into the region and no precip is expected. Even clouds will be difficult in this airmass and expect mostly sunny skies to add a few degrees to afternoon highs compared to yesterday, particularly in the NW. Winds remain light and variable through tonight with mostly clear skies yielding lows in the 40s once again. Ridge axis passes to our east on Friday and winds slowly become more southerly with some weak WAA. This will push highs into the mid/upper 70s on Fri. Another weak southern stream wave will eject into the Ohio Valley on Sat and bring our next chance for rain. Moderate CVA and moisture advection on a 50 kt LLJ will support numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Warm temps aloft and early arrival of clouds/prefrontal precip will substantially limit the instability though and severe storms are not currently expected. Forecast confidence decreases heading into next week as sensible weather will be driven by small-scale features difficult to resolve this far out. Suspect Sunday will end up primarily dry though still plenty of ensemble guidance to support chance PoP`s. Forecast will trend warmer through the middle of next week as broad ridging develops over the eastern CONUS. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 102 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 A broad low level anticyclone will continue to be the dominant feature across the region into Friday. Embedded in this larger scale anticyclone is a weak inverted low level trough that has been the focus of IFR/LIFR cigs just west of KFWA this morning into this afternoon. Diurnal mixing has gradually improved these cigs to above 2k feet, and remaining primarily west of KFWA. Would expect any MVFR conditions to be short-lived at KFWA through 19Z or 20Z. Otherwise, light northeast winds may back to the north at KSBN later this afternoon as a weak lake breeze forms. Light winds tonight become light southerly Friday afternoon between 5 and 10 knots. After diurnal low level clouds diminish this evening, some low coverage high clouds are expected on Friday with VFR conditions expected. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AGD AVIATION...Marsili