402
FXUS64 KJAN 250555 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1255 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Rest of the evening into tonight...

An active period is expected the next few hours & into the
overnight. Ongoing convection to the north is diving southward
into the very unstable environment, with nearly 2500-3000 J/kg
ML/MUCAPE & 50-70kts effective bulk shear / 45-70kts 0-6km & 0-8km
shear, respectively. Ongoing severe weather approaching the area
is moving into mostly untapped air & severe storms remain possible
in the near term over the next few hours & through the overnight
hours. There remains some low tornado potential, but low-level
shear begins to drop off south of Hwy 82 corridor, with only
around 20-25kts in the 0-3km layer & less than 10kts below that.
Collaborated an earlier severe thunderstorm watch to account for
this activity & the watch in effect through 11PM. There will be
continued severe threat into the overnight hours, potentially
after midnight-3AM. Sfc analysis this evening indicate front
across the Plains, with continued ascent from shortwave to the
that will propagate into the region through the evening hours.
There continues to be run- to-run variability on the convective
evolution of the storms to the west in the ArkLaTex, but these
should move in overnight & could have multi mode potential, even a
developing MCS. Overall thinking in terms of the HWO graphic
remains the same. Earlier updates to the add the watch are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Evening through Tomorrow:

Warm and humid conditions across the area today have afternoon
SBCAPE values around 3000-4000 J/kg, but forcing is minimal for new
storms to develop within our area through the rest of this evening.
An earlier disturbance across northern Mississippi shifting east
helped to trigger a few storms just north and just east of our CWA,
but the better chances for any storms will have to wait until later
this evening and overnight as convection developing along a front in
the Plains potentially moves southeastward. Several of the high-res
guidance members continue to show this potential, but overall
confidence in how the scenario plays out is low. We will maintain
the current Slight Risk for severe storms generally in the US
Highway 82 corridor during the evening and overnight hours, though
some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out reaching the
Interstate 20 corridor late in the night. A Marginal Risk covers
those areas. With potential for any kind of MCS to swing through
late in the night and early morning Saturday, a Marginal Risk
continues into the daytime for northeast Mississippi. If rain
doesn`t spread too far south tonight, Saturday`s highs should
climb into the lower 90s. /NF/

Sunday through Friday:

Mid-level troughing will continue through early Sunday as
multiple rounds of short wave energy will swing through the
North/Northcentral MS. While Saturday night and throughout the day
Sunday are expected to be dry and clear with temperatures
expected to warm into the low 90s, a cold front will approach the
area from the northwest. As the main low moves into the Great
Lakes region the front will be forced down to our area as the warm
sector is enhanced. As our CWA will be in the warm sector as any
storms that form along and ahead of the approaching front in the
northern portions of the CWA will have favorable conditions to
turn severe. The primary risks will be damaging wind gusts, and
hail up to golf ball size thus a marginal risk has been issued
areas along the Hwy-82 corridor and a slight risk has been added
for the Bolivar County. This severe potential will be confined to
overnight into the early morning hours. Come Monday morning
potential for severe and rain chances will have ended. However,
Monday afternoon rain chances will return and linger into midday
Tuesday as the cold front passes through the area. Following the
passage of the front a surface high will begin building into area
from the northwest and the trough axis shifts eastward. By
Wednesday dry and cool conditions will ensue as northwest flow
will limit heating from the Gulf. We can expect ridging aloft to
keep conditions quiet through the end of the period. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

An area of TSRA/SHRA wl continue to affect GLH-GWO the next
several hours and may come in vcty of GTR 09-10Z. Elsewhere VFR
conditions are expected to continue prevailing until after 09Z
when MVFR cigs wl be psbl across the srn TAF sites until after
14Z. After 14Z, VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the
end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  92  71  91 /   0   0  20  30
Meridian      72  93  71  93 /   0   0  10  30
Vicksburg     72  92  72  93 /   0   0  20  20
Hattiesburg   72  93  74  93 /   0   0   0  30
Natchez       72  92  73  93 /   0   0  10  20
Greenville    74  92  74  92 /   0  10  40  20
Greenwood     74  92  72  92 /   0   0  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/KP/22