822
FXUS64 KJAN 250058
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
758 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Rest of the evening into tonight...

An active period is expected the next few hours & into the
overnight. Ongoing convection to the north is diving southward
into the very unstable environment, with nearly 2500-3000 J/kg
ML/MUCAPE & 50-70kts effective bulk shear / 45-70kts 0-6km & 0-8km
shear, respectively. Ongoing severe weather approaching the area
is moving into mostly untapped air & severe storms remain possible
in the near term over the next few hours & through the overnight
hours. There remains some low tornado potential, but low-level
shear begins to drop off south of Hwy 82 corridor, with only
around 20-25kts in the 0-3km layer & less than 10kts below that.
Collaborated an earlier severe thunderstorm watch to account for
this activity & the watch in effect through 11PM. There will be
continued severe threat into the overnight hours, potentially
after midnight-3AM. Sfc analysis this evening indicate front
across the Plains, with continued ascent from shortwave to the
that will propagate into the region through the evening hours.
There continues to be run- to-run variability on the convective
evolution of the storms to the west in the ArkLaTex, but these
should move in overnight & could have multi mode potential, even a
developing MCS. Overall thinking in terms of the HWO graphic
remains the same. Earlier updates to the add the watch are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

This Evening through Tomorrow:

Warm and humid conditions across the area today have afternoon
SBCAPE values around 3000-4000 J/kg, but forcing is minimal for new
storms to develop within our area through the rest of this evening.
An earlier disturbance across northern Mississippi shifting east
helped to trigger a few storms just north and just east of our CWA,
but the better chances for any storms will have to wait until later
this evening and overnight as convection developing along a front in
the Plains potentially moves southeastward. Several of the high-res
guidance members continue to show this potential, but overall
confidence in how the scenario plays out is low. We will maintain
the current Slight Risk for severe storms generally in the US
Highway 82 corridor during the evening and overnight hours, though
some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out reaching the
Interstate 20 corridor late in the night. A Marginal Risk covers
those areas. With potential for any kind of MCS to swing through
late in the night and early morning Saturday, a Marginal Risk
continues into the daytime for northeast Mississippi. If rain
doesn`t spread too far south tonight, Saturday`s highs should
climb into the lower 90s. /NF/

Sunday through Friday:

Mid-level troughing will continue through early Sunday as
multiple rounds of short wave energy will swing through the
North/Northcentral MS. While Saturday night and throughout the day
Sunday are expected to be dry and clear with temperatures
expected to warm into the low 90s, a cold front will approach the
area from the northwest. As the main low moves into the Great
Lakes region the front will be forced down to our area as the warm
sector is enhanced. As our CWA will be in the warm sector as any
storms that form along and ahead of the approaching front in the
northern portions of the CWA will have favorable conditions to
turn severe. The primary risks will be damaging wind gusts, and
hail up to golf ball size thus a marginal risk has been issued
areas along the Hwy-82 corridor and a slight risk has been added
for the Bolivar County. This severe potential will be confined to
overnight into the early morning hours. Come Monday morning
potential for severe and rain chances will have ended. However,
Monday afternoon rain chances will return and linger into midday
Tuesday as the cold front passes through the area. Following the
passage of the front a surface high will begin building into area
from the northwest and the trough axis shifts eastward. By
Wednesday dry and cool conditions will ensue as northwest flow
will limit heating from the Gulf. We can expect ridging aloft to
keep conditions quiet through the end of the period. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 757 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail but SHRA & TSRA are moving towards GLH,
GWO & GTR over the next hour or two & persist through around
25/07-11Z Saturday. Any more severe activity that impacts any TAF
aerodrome could contain gusty winds >40kts, large hail & frequent
TS. Some chance for SHRA & TSRA north of I-20 corridor will
persist through 25/12Z, & chances for low stratus south of I-20
corridor in that time frame as well. Expect mixing to improve
stratus to VFR by mid-morning Saturday & low probs of convection
into the aftn. /NF/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
Meridian      71  93  72  93 /  10  20   0   0
Vicksburg     73  91  72  92 /  20  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   73  94  72  93 /   0  10   0   0
Natchez       72  91  72  92 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    73  89  74  92 /  60  40   0  10
Greenwood     71  90  74  92 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/KP/NF/DC