595
FXUS64 KJAN 181455
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
955 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 940 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

A fairly quiet morning is expected to transpire over the next
several hours as mid-level westerly flow persists into the CWA.
Hi-res satellite imagery shows clearing of low level clouds and
dissipating fog as a trough axis digs southeast of the CWA, where
a potent system generates storms along the AL/FL coastal areas.
Luckily for us, this will keep the moisture axis mostly out of the
CWA, limiting the heavy rain and severe potential in the south.
For the northeastern portion of the CWA, clearing is expected to
take place over the next several hours, allowing for instability
to increase. Additionally, a weak axis of moisture along a closed
low near southwestern MS looks to generate enough energy to pose a
low end severe weather risk this afternoon into the early
evening. Lapse rates are fairly increased, along with SBCAPE
climbing between 1500 - 2000 J/kg per RAP mesoanalysis. The
potential for isolated severe storms will have the risks of
damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size if a decent
updraft is able to develop. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies
with highs into the lower to middle 80s this afternoon. /AJ/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Today through tonight: Morning radar is showing the majority of
the precipitation south of the CWA. Areas of patchy fog will be
possible for southwestern and south-central areas during the early
morning hours but will dissipate after sunrise. A shortwave
trough will continue to progress eastward, helping to push a
stalled frontal boundary near Louisiana away from the region.
Ahead of the trough, showers and a few thunderstorms will
continue to be possible throughout the day with better rain
chances over the eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA. As
most of the heavy rainfall remains near the Gulf coast and with
accumulation totals begin 0.5 inches or less, the flood watch was
cancelled, but a "Marginal" risk for severe weather remains for
southeastern and eastern portions of the area. Damaging wind gusts
up 60 mph and hail up to quarter size are the primary hazards of
concern. The aforementioned trough is expected to push through
the area by the afternoon, bringing rain chances to an end from
west to east late afternoon and into the evening. Clouds will
gradually clear out into the overnight hours resulting in low
temperatures dropping into the 60s. /SW/

Sunday through Friday: It looks like most of the long range
forecast for our area will feature rather hot days and dry
weather. Anticyclonic flow associated with a subtropical ridge
extending from Mexico into the Southern Plains will have the most
influence on our weather through early to mid week. With H850
temperatures reaching 18 to 20 deg C in the guidance, it wouldn`t
be surprising to see a few locations reach the mid 90s at some
point. Fortunately, the boundary layer RH is not expected to
reciprocate, and this should help keep heat stress from becoming a
big concern. As we go into mid/late week, a significant shortwave
trough moving across the Plains/MS Valley is expected to suppress
the ridge some and allow a cold front to push into our region.
This will likely increase thunderstorm chances for mainly
northwest/northern portions of the forecast area, and we may need
to monitor for strong to severe storm potential. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

IFR/LIFR flight conditions are expected as low stratus/fog remain
over the area this morning. Expect stratus/fog to lift later this
morning with VFR conditions becoming prevalent by the afternoon.
Otherwise, expect SHRA/TSRA chances to be on the increase for
mainly eastern sites during peak heating. /SW/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  66  89  66 /  20  10   0   0
Meridian      85  63  88  64 /  30  20   0   0
Vicksburg     86  66  89  66 /  10  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   86  66  90  66 /  40  10   0   0
Natchez       85  66  88  67 /  10  10   0   0
Greenville    85  68  90  67 /  30   0   0   0
Greenwood     84  66  90  66 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AJ/EC/SW