359
FXUS64 KJAN 031552
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1052 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The near term forecast is rather challenging as we have potential
for a significant MCS to approach our area from the west later
today resulting in an increased convective wind threat and heavy
rainfall. What complicates the forecast early on is that the
convective system from last night overturned the airmass to our
west, and a good bit of modification still needs to take place for
the forecast scenario to play out. Near term guidance insist on
this happening as southerly low level flow increases moisture
transport ahead of an mesoscale convective vortex in the Ozark
region, and latest satellite/obs trends are suggesting the trends
are on track with the forecast, so will maintain messaging for the
slight severe risk over the western half of the area. Over MS,
the airmass is relatively undisturbed and will support scattered,
disorganized shower/storm development through the afternoon ahead
of any potential MCS, and the forecast handles this well. /EC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Through tonight: An MCS which resulted in severe weather across
parts of TX and western LA has weakened considerably overnight as
it pushed into central MS and south LA. Though this feature will
continue pushing past our area without much fanfare, we remain in
an active, progressive weather pattern, and the next disturbance
awaits not far behind. Scattered shower activity remains possible
through this morning as the current MCV continues east, but
considerable cloud debris should limit instability enough to
prevent more vigorous development. Then attention will turn
upstream to another MCS, percolating over western KS early this
morning. While there is decent model agreement on this system
organizing and moving into our area later this afternoon or this
evening, due to the unpredictability of mesoscale features,
confidence in timing and location specifics is not high. Boundary
interactions throughout the day could easily impact the evolution
of this feature. Nevertheless, for now the highest confidence in
severe potential is along and west of I-55 late this afternoon
into this evening. Storms should generally wane as they get
farther east later tonight as instability decreases, but there is
still potential for an MCS to make it all the way eastward across
the state. There could also be a few scattered stronger storms
this afternoon ahead of this complex given the moist and unstable
environment that should be in place. Damaging wind gusts,
particularly with composite outflows along an MCS, will be the
primarily concern with any severe storms, but hail up to quarter
size is also possible. /DL/

Tuesday through early next week...

High pressure over the eastern CONUS will keep a steady stream of
moisture into the area, supportive of daily rain and storm
chances for much of the extended period. A period of enhanced
activity appears possible later this week as midlevel flow is
ample for organization. Overlapping a moist boundary layer, with
PWAT generally in excess of 1.7 inches, several rounds of storms
appear possible. DCAPE in the 800 to 1300 j/kg range will support
downbursts capable of damaging wind gusts. There is still a bit of
uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of these systems as a
lot depends on mesoscale features.

Around Thursday night into Friday, a cold front pushes south and
along and ahead of it, rain and storm chances will continue. In
the wake of the cold front, drier air will shift focus further
south for the weekend. There is a chance that the front stalls out
and given the lingering moisture reservoir, this may serve as a
focus for storms around the Fri/Sat period, however this is only
speculation at this time. Will adjust forecast as needed if
confidence increases. This weekend, high pressure shifts east,
relaxing flow aloft and diminishing low level return flow. Still,
moisture remains elevated given lack of airmass change and
isolated storms will be possible. Into early next week, the
moisture axis shifts west, which should shift the bulk of activity
towards Texas./SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A patchy stratus deck is resulting in ceiling reductions to
IFR/LIFR in some areas, but it will scatter/lift by mid to late
morning, with VFR conditions returning in most areas. Scattered
SHRA are also on going and may persist through the day, with
coverage expected to increase this afternoon into this evening and
TS becoming possible, resulting in periodic reductions in
ceiling/visibility. Low stratus clouds are expected to redevelop
late this evening through early Tuesday morning, with reductions
to MVFR and IFR possible again. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       89  71  89  73 /  60  30  30  10
Meridian      89  69  90  71 /  50  30  40  10
Vicksburg     89  71  90  73 /  60  30  20  10
Hattiesburg   89  72  90  73 /  60  20  40  10
Natchez       88  71  89  72 /  60  20  20  10
Greenville    86  72  89  74 /  60  40  30  10
Greenwood     87  71  89  73 /  50  40  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

DL/SAS20/DL