Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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028 FXUS64 KJAN 012021 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 321 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Through Sunday: An active weather pattern will continue in the near term as rain and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop later on in the evening. Short term guidance continues to show a shortwave disturbance developing a convective complex in the southwest and pushing the previously mentioned complex into the ArkLaMiss region during the evening/overnight hours. With instability still in place (MLCAPE values near 2000 J/kg, lapse rate between 6-7 C/km) and decent precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, isolated severe weather and flash flooding will remain a concern through the evening, mainly over southern and far eastern portions of the area, and HWO graphics will continue to reflect the risk areas. Overnight temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Rain and thunderstorms are expected to start off Sunday morning as a shortwave disturbance moves off towards the east. A strong storm or two could be possible during Sunday morning but severe weather is not anticipated. As the shortwave progresses through the area, flash flooding threat should diminish as the afternoon progresses and rain chances will diminish late afternoon into the evening. /SW/ Sunday night through Friday night: Active westerlies will continue through the long term forecast bringing the potential for additional MCS activity and perhaps the threat for severe weather and localized flash flooding. Convective rainfall should be most prominent over northern portions of the area Mon-Tue, but it appears the Wed-Fri time frame will have the greatest concerns for the area as whole when a significant cold front is expected to push farther south toward the forecast area. /EC/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 VFR flight conditions for majority of TAF sites with the following exceptions: MEI/GWO/HKS are under MVFR flight conditions and GTR is under IFR flight conditions to start the TAF period. Showers/thunderstorms have decreased throughout the morning, however redevelopment may be possible this afternoon and evening in eastern MS and southern TAF sites as instability and a moist airmass remains over the region. Shower/thunderstorm potential and cloud cover will remain over the area into Sunday, resulting in lower ceilings and VFR/MVFR flight conditions for Sunday morning. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 69 87 69 89 / 20 20 0 20 Meridian 68 89 68 91 / 30 30 0 20 Vicksburg 69 88 70 89 / 20 20 0 20 Hattiesburg 70 88 70 91 / 30 40 0 20 Natchez 69 87 70 89 / 40 40 0 20 Greenville 70 89 72 89 / 10 20 0 20 Greenwood 70 89 70 90 / 10 20 0 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SW/EC/SW