207
FXUS64 KJAN 010603
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Departing shortwave trough axis aloft has carried best rain
chances east of the I-55 corridor late this evening, and
convection managed to use up almost all of the instability left
across the forecast area. Light to occasionally moderate rainfall
will continue into early tomorrow morning. Some of the guidance
do show the possibility for some warm advection showers to re-
develop around 3-5 a.m. This could be due to an increase in
warm, moist advection in the lower levels overnight, but it`s
uncertain at this time whether there will be the needed shortwave
impulse to provide lift. Additionally, drier air should be working
in some from the west overnight in the wake of earlier rainfall.
Will carry the mention of thunderstorms overnight, but have
discontinued advertising Marginal Risk outlook for severe storms
through the remainder of the night. Took the opportunity to
updated POPs and weather timing into the afternoon and evening
tomorrow, as this latest system will take some time to recover
from a perspective of diurnal thunderstorm activity. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight through Saturday:

Periods of showers and storms will continue through Saturday. A
few storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail
being the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out
but it seems as if that threat is diminishing and the damaging
wind threat and locally heavy rainfall will be the main issues
with these waves of showers and storms. We still maintain a
marginal to slight risk of severe weather over portions of the
forecast area through tonight.

Saturday night through Thursday:

Active weather including the potential for severe weather and
flash flooding will be possible over most of the period. By
Saturday evening the shortwave trough axis will be east of
Mississippi taking the most vigorous convection with it. Our
region will still have west to northwest flow aloft and there is
at least a couple models hinting at an MCS moving back into our
southwest during the evening. This would bring a threat of
damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Locally heavy rain
would also likely accompany the system. During the period Friday
night through Sunday morning there will be the potential for two
to four inches of rain in a short amount of time. This would
result in localized flash flooding. Sunday wl still have a warm
moist airmass in place. Daytime heating looks to combine with
another subtle shortwave to enhance convection over the region
leading to scattered to numerous coverage going into Sunday
evening. This convection is expected to have a distinct diurnal
trend to it and will wain with the loss of daytime heating. We
will still have a warm moist airmass over our region come Monday.
Monday yet another shortwave trough is expected to move across the
region during the heat of the day and lead to at least scattered
coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening storms. Tuesday
convection is expected to be less and more confined to our
northern zones as mid level ridging looks to strengthen some over
the southern portions of our CWA. There remain difference in the
models with Wednesday into Thursday but consensus suggests a
northern stream disturbance will be strong enough to help send a
cold front into our region that would lead to a greater coverage
of convection over our CWA Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
/22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions will occur across all several
sites to start off the TAF period as local radar scans show light
showers tracking northeast towards Tennessee. Ceilings will start to
drop to MVFR/IFR conditions a little after 07Z Saturday for most
sites. Some sites could see ceilings drop down to LIFR status
starting around 11Z Saturday. Adjustments will be necessary as
conditions start to worsen. Ceilings will begin to lift to VFR
status between 15Z to 18Z Saturday as the stratus deck starts to
lift. A brief period of low level wind shear will be possible
across a few TAF sites (JAN, GWO, & HKS) between 08Z and 09Z
Saturday. Southerly winds will occur across central MS through 12Z
Saturday before shifting to the west by 15Z Saturday. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  69  84  70 /  60  30  50  10
Meridian      83  67  84  69 /  80  30  60  20
Vicksburg     86  70  87  72 /  30  20  50  10
Hattiesburg   85  70  87  70 /  80  40  60  10
Natchez       86  69  87  71 /  40  30  50  10
Greenville    86  70  85  72 /  20  20  40  10
Greenwood     84  70  85  70 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

MJH/22/CR/NF