666
FXUS64 KJAN 280530 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Rest of tonight...

Dry aftn will give way to a quiet night. Water vapor/RAP/00Z
observations indicate synoptic large scale troughing across the
eastern half of the nation, with the focus over the Mid-West to
Great Lakes. Frontal system extends from sfc low northeast of
Lake Huron & draped southwestward across the Gulf Coast states.
Evening 00Z upper air observations indicate dry, subsident
northwesterly flow, with increased frontal convergence & better
moisture/storm potential residing closer to the Gulf Coast. PWs
are on the downtrend, around 1.2 inches on the 28/00Z obs at JAN
while less than an inch PWs to the northwest & progged to build
southeast over the Gulf Coast states by the morning. Other than
some broad ascent that could bring in some high passing
cirrus/orphan anvils of storms in north-central TX, skies will be
mostly clear tonight. Light winds will aid in more seasonable
lows in the mid-upper 60s, with cool spots in the Hwy 25 corridor
potentially 64-66 degree F range. Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Through Tuesday: For the late afternoon to early evening, the
main concerns will be heat stress, especially across southern
portions of the area, and also for a continued marginal risk south
of the Highway 84 corridor. As it stands, storms have yet to
redevelop, but most recent visible imagery show the potential for
a seabreeze front to interact the lingering convective outflow
boundary over se MS, and this may offer the greatest potential for
isolate storms, mainly in the Pine Belt region. In addition, the
boundary layer remains quite oppressive and will maintain current
heat danger messaging, including a heat advisory that was issued
earlier for the Natchez area. During the overnight, expect fair
weather conditions with slightly cooler low temperatures.

For Tuesday, a nearly stationary frontal boundary skirting the
southwest portion of the forecast area will potential support
storm development late in the day. Some guidance indicate that a
convective system will move across the ArkLaTex region and track
southeast along the boundary, potentially impacting far southwest
portions of the area. Given the storm organization and cold pool
potential, have included a marginal risk for severe weather for
far southwest portions and this in included now in the HWO
graphics. Otherwise, not much in the way of significant weather
impacts are expected elsewhere, but temperatures will remain on
the hot side. /EC/

Tuesday night through the weekend: Through the long term isolated
shower and thunderstorm chances will be present almost everyday
of the period. The pattern will be one dominated by upper level
troughing across the area keeping a boundary across our
west/southwest and heavily contributing to the lingering precip
chances. As rounds of shortwave energy interact with the boundary
we can expect to see mostly sub-severe showers and storms mainly
across our western periphery. Over the course of the period we can
expect to see a continuation of the H5 ridge building over the
Southern Plains. This will lead to increased northwesterly flow,
with a slightly drier and cooler airmass moving in bringing high
temperatures in the low to high 80s by midweek. Come Saturday a
stronger shortwave moves through the area bringing increased
chances for showers and storms areawide. Sunday through Monday
temperatures and moisture will begin to increase as low-level flow
increases bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and
storms across the area. /KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period. An isold SHRA may come in vcty of HEZ Tue aftn. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  83  66  84 /  10  30  20  30
Meridian      67  85  64  85 /   0  20  20  20
Vicksburg     69  81  66  85 /  10  30  20  30
Hattiesburg   69  88  67  87 /  10  20  10  20
Natchez       69  83  67  85 /  20  30  20  40
Greenville    70  80  67  84 /  10  30  20  20
Greenwood     68  80  64  85 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/EC/KP/22