784
FXUS64 KJAN 211641 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1141 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1137 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

No major adjustments were needed for the current forecast through
tonight. There is however an increasing chance for shower and
thunderstorm activity over Arkansas tomorrow to push southeast
into portions of our forecast area. POPs and weather have been
adjusted through tomorrow afternoon to account for this
possibility. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Today through tonight: Another dry day with above normal
temperatures is expected as the subtropical ridge axis extending
from Mexico into the Lower Mississippi Valley region crosses our
area. At the surface, high pressure will shift to our east, and
this will result in a tightening pressure gradient and increased
surface wind gusts during peak heating. Fog will continue to be a
concern during the early morning hours over the Pine Belt region,
and have kept the mention of dense fog in the graphics. /EC/

Wednesday into early next week...

Early morning global guidance continues to highlight a strong 983 mb
low pressure system tracking northeast towards the Great Lakes-
southern Canada through Wednesday morning. As the sfc low shifts
towards southern Canada, model consensus indicate height falls along
the northern extent of the subtropical ridge across the Mid South
to the Gulf Coast States. Because of this, a frontal boundary
will start to shift southward across these zone with further
northern extension into the Ohio Valley and the Upper East Coast.

Overall, model guidance appears to be in alignment with the
placement of the frontal boundary heading into Wednesday
evening/Wednesday night. There is some slight discrepancies with
the guidance as the Euro shows the frontal boundary clipping
extreme northwest ArkLaMiss Delta area slightly faster than the
GFS. Nevertheless, the combination of southerly return flow,
increased moist ascent, and limited deep shear >40kts will help
support a low end threat of isolated strong-severe storms with
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size being the primary
concerns. The threat for isolated severe storms will continue
across most of the Delta as we head into Thursday. We maintained a
Marginal Risk (1 out 5)in the HWO graphic for both days with most
of the severe threat diminishing around late Thursday evening.

Giving the increasing humidity, warm temperatures, and presence
of a nearby frontal boundary, storm chances will continue for the
northern areas. Guidance consensus highlights multiple decent
waves moving across the forecast area as we head into the weekend.
Forecast confidence at this time remains low. We will continue to
monitor trends and will provide updates as we get closer to the
weekend and model data becomes available. Heading into the next
work week, a large scale trough will begin to set up across the
eastern CONUS. This trough will help push a cool front and dry air
into our CWA with rain chance starting to decrease by the middle
of next week. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the most part along with gusty
southerly winds during time of peak heating. Patchy areas of IFR
category BR/FG will continue in the PIB/HBG area early this
morning. Fog/stratus should dissipate by mid morning. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  69  88  70 /   0   0  10  10
Meridian      90  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     92  69  89  71 /   0   0  20  10
Hattiesburg   91  67  89  68 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       90  68  88  70 /   0   0  10  10
Greenville    92  73  89  71 /   0  10  40  30
Greenwood     91  71  89  71 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

NF/CR/EC