104
FXUS64 KJAN 252010
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
310 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Through Sunday: Lingering clouds from earlier convection resulted in
a differential heating boundary from the upper Delta through east MS
and into central AL this afternoon. This boundary may now serve as a
focus for scattered diurnal convection to develop over the next few
hours. Given moderate to strong instability and marginally strong
deep shear, a few of these storms could become severe. Activity
should taper off both in terms of intensity and coverage shortly
after sunset as we lose the fuel from daytime heating. Damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail will be the main concerns with the
strongest storms.

Otherwise, it will be mostly dry overnight and through most of the
daytime Sunday as shortwave ridging briefly builds across the area.
In the continuing low level southerly flow, a resurgence of low
clouds is possible especially across south MS predawn Sunday
morning, lifting and diminishing through the day. Temperatures will
remain seasonably warm into Sunday. /DL/

Sunday night through Monday night: An organized convective system
may move across much of the forecast area from Sunday night into
Memorial Day morning bringing the threat for damaging straight-
line winds and hail. A shortwave trough is forecast by all
guidance to bring significant height falls into the Lower MS
Valley region late Sunday, and with the environment features
steep lapse rates and strong mid/upper level flow, intense deep
convection is likely to initiate and eventually organize into an
MCS with a substantial cold pool north of the Hwy 82 corridor by
evening given downdraft CAPE values up to 1500 j/kg.

While ambient low level shear forecasts would support greater
convective wind potential with an eastward moving system, the
magnitude of the cold pool and airmass density change will likely
promote strong to severe wind gusts as the boundary propagates
southward through the night. Confidence is low concerning the
southward extent of the significant wind threat as we go into
Memorial Day morning, and depending on this, we will know more
about any additional storm threats for late afternoon/evening
across mainly southern portions of the area. Most guidance do not
appear to allow for sufficient recovery for late day storms in our
area as it stands, but all interests should monitor future
updates.

Tuesday through Friday night: A drier airmass will be one of
bigger stories for the mid/late week as a deep longwave trough
over much of the eastern CONUS and influences as our region.
Convective rainfall chances will continue to some extent however
as the boundary doesn`t ever move too far away. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Patchy MVFR stratus ceilings persist across parts of northeast LA,
AR, and north MS. However, these should lift to VFR shortly. This
afternoon into early evening, isolated to scattered SHRA and TS
are anticipated mainly north of I-20. Some of the TS could have
wind gusts to 50 kt at 1 inch hail. Late tonight into early Sun
morning, MVFR to locally IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop
across parts of south MS, with patchy MVFR fog also possible
around daybreak. VFR conditions are expected to return by mid-
morning. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  92  72  92 /  10   0  30  20
Meridian      72  93  71  93 /  20   0  20  30
Vicksburg     74  92  73  93 /  10   0  30  20
Hattiesburg   73  94  74  94 /   0   0  10  30
Natchez       72  92  72  93 /   0   0  20  10
Greenville    75  92  74  91 /  10  10  60  10
Greenwood     74  92  72  91 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

DL/EC/DL