Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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054 FXUS64 KJAN 242040 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 340 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 This Evening through Tomorrow: Warm and humid conditions across the area today have afternoon SBCAPE values around 3000-4000 J/kg, but forcing is minimal for new storms to develop within our area through the rest of this evening. An earlier disturbance across northern Mississippi shifting east helped to trigger a few storms just north and just east of our CWA, but the better chances for any storms will have to wait until later this evening and overnight as convection developing along a front in the Plains potentially moves southeastward. Several of the high-res guidance members continue to show this potential, but overall confidence in how the scenario plays out is low. We will maintain the current Slight Risk for severe storms generally in the US Highway 82 corridor during the evening and overnight hours, though some strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out reaching the Interstate 20 corridor late in the night. A Marginal Risk covers those areas. With potential for any kind of MCS to swing through late in the night and early morning Saturday, a Marginal Risk continues into the daytime for northeast Mississippi. If rain doesn`t spread too far south tonight, Saturday`s highs should climb into the lower 90s. /NF/ Sunday through Friday: Mid-level troughing will continue through early Sunday as multiple rounds of short wave energy will swing through the North/Northcentral MS. While Saturday night and throughout the day Sunday are expected to be dry and clear with temperatures expected to warm into the low 90s, a cold front will approach the area from the northwest. As the main low moves into the Great Lakes region the front will be forced down to our area as the warm sector is enhanced. As our CWA will be in the warm sector as any storms that form along and ahead of the approaching front in the northern portions of the CWA will have favorable conditions to turn severe. The primary risks will be damaging wind gusts, and hail up to golf ball size thus a marginal risk has been issued areas along the Hwy-82 corridor and a slight risk has been added for the Bolivar County. This severe potential will be confined to overnight into the early morning hours. Come Monday morning potential for severe and rain chances will have ended. However, Monday afternoon rain chances will return and linger into midday Tuesday as the cold front passes through the area. Following the passage of the front a surface high will begin building into area from the northwest and the trough axis shifts eastward. By Wednesday dry and cool conditions will ensue as northwest flow will limit heating from the Gulf. We can expect ridging aloft to keep conditions quiet through the end of the period. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites until between 06Z to 12Z Saturday. Some chance for SHRA and TSRA north of Interstate 20 after that time frame, and chances for low stratus south of Interstate 20 in that time frame as well. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 Meridian 71 93 72 93 / 10 20 0 0 Vicksburg 73 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 94 72 93 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 72 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 0 Greenville 73 89 74 92 / 50 40 0 10 Greenwood 71 90 74 92 / 40 40 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/KP/NF