198
FXUS62 KJAX 201801
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
201 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon/evening...Breezy northeast flow will
continue scattered showers along the NE FL Atlantic Coastal
counties with isolated thunderstorm potential over inland NE FL
during peak heating into the middle 80s, but overall rainfall and
storm threat remains on the low side and will quickly fade around
sunset.

Tonight...As Northeast flow weakens slowly, this will allow for
skies to clear over inland areas with with a slight chance of a
shower along the coast through the night. Mostly skies are
expected overnight with lows in the lower/middle 60s inland with
patchy fog possible towards sunrise, while lows in the upper 60s
expected along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

High pressure near the Mid Atlantic Coast will continue to wedge
ridging southwestward across most of the region Tuesday, as a very
slow moving upper low lingers well offshore. This will continue an
onshore flow pattern for Tuesday, and therefore another round of
isolated to scattered showers moving onshore. Since the low will
nudge further east compared to today, expecting chances for
showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder to be confined
to areas furthest south and east. Though a few sprinkles cannot be
ruled out as far north as coastal southeast GA. High temps will
remain below average towards the coast in the low to mid 80s, as
inland areas moderate to the mid to upper 80s. Onshore flow drops
off overnight Tuesday with lows closer to normal expected,
generally low to mid 60s and closer to 70 by the coast.

The aforementioned upper low continues to pinwheel further
offshore Wednesday and Wednesday Night as high pressure ridging
starts to build more aloft in addition to surface ridging,
therefore expecting this period to remain dry. Cannot fully rule
out an isolated shower to pop up diurnally over inland northeast
FL during the afternoon and evening given some lingering onshore
flow and low level moisture. However, given the subsidence in
place, chances for this will be very low (around 10% or less).
Highs start to moderate closer to normal on Wednesday, in the
upper 80s to low 90s except for near the coast. MAinly clear and
dry into Wednesday Night as well with lows generally in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Not much change to the pattern for Thursday and into Friday as
high pressure ridging persists and high temps continue to moderate
towards near to slightly above normal. A shortwave trough moves
across the area on Friday Night and Saturday, which returns
chances for showers and thunderstorms, though does not look like a
significant event at this time. Surface high pressure moves
offshore late this weekend as a more zonal pattern aloft also
looks to take shape, with a more seabreeze shower/t`storm type of
pattern likely. Temps are expected to remain slightly above normal
for the start of Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

A few brief MVFR CIGS leftover at NE FL TAF sites until the 19-21Z
time frame as isolated showers (VCSH) continue, but will fade
quickly in the 21-24Z time frame towards sunset with conds
becoming VFR at all TAF sites with decreasing NE winds and skies
becoming mostly clear. Cooler overnight lows in the 60s inland
will support some patchy MVFR fog at VQQ/GNV around sunrise,
otherwise expect some brief MVFR CIGS at coastal TAF sites during
the mid-late morning diurnal heating hours as NE winds slowly
increase in the 13-16Z time frame, but might be too early to
introduce with this TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Brisk northeasterly flow continues through this evening as high
pressure ridging continues to build in. Small Craft Advisories
remain in effect for all waters through 8 PM. This flow regime
will weaken Tuesday, with persistent high pressure ridging
persisting through mid to late week thereafter.

Rip Currents: Moderate to High risk of rip currents expected the
rest of Today and into Tuesday as gusty onshore flow continues
through tonight and slowly subsides on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  69  80  70  83 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  83  67  87 /   0  20   0  10
SGJ  67  83  70  85 /  10  30   0  10
GNV  62  86  65  90 /   0  30   0  10
OCF  63  88  67  91 /   0  30   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450-452-
     454-470-472-474.

&&

$$