432
FXUS62 KJAX 211739
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
139 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon/evening...Forecast remains on track with
near term model guidance still suggesting that a combination of
coastal trough moving onshore and East coast sea breeze
development an inland push through the afternoon hours will kick
off scattered showers and potential isolated thunderstorms across
NE FL, mainly south of the I-10 corridor. PWATs already around 1
inch or so and expected to increase closer to 1.5 inches as the
sea breeze and mid level impulse push onshore through the day. Max
temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the 80s
for most locations. Breezy Northeast winds will expected at the
coast in the 15-20G25-30 mph range with 10-15G20 mph winds
expected further inland.

Tonight...Rainfall chances will fade quickly around sunset with
the loss of daytime heating with skies becoming mostly clear
overnight and lows expected in the 60s inland and near 70 along
the coast. Patchy to areas of fog expected towards sunrise with
locally dense fog possible over inland areas, mainly along the
I-10 corridor northward across inland SE GA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

High pressure along the east coast continues the onshore wind
flow, allowing the sea-breeze to make its way in just east of the
301 corridor. An upper level ridge moves in from the west,
bringing drier conditions to the region. Mostly clear skies will
allow temperatures to warm up into the upper 80s to low 90s with
temperatures in the low to mid 80s along the coast. overnight
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, low 70s along the
coast with chances of patchy fog for SE GA.

Thursday, another dry day with winds beginning to shift to the
southeast in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon as
central high surface pressure slowly makes its way off the
Atlantic coast. The sea-breeze will again make its way inland with
windier conditions of 8-9mph sticking closer to the coast. Daytime
temperatures will be in the low 90s area wide with temperatures in
the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Thursday night, mostly clear
skies with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Upper level ridging sticks around for the forecast period with
surface ridging slowly weakens into the beginning of next week.
Local troughing caused by the sea-breeze could bring some
afternoon and evening showers with isolated thunderstorms into the
weekend. Temperatures will stick around the low to mid 90s with
overnight temperatures in the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Isolated to Widely scattered showers continue to pop-up along the
East Coast sea breeze as it pushes inland and will keep the
current trend of using VCSH to cover this scenario until a more
organized line of showers develops, which is most likely at GNV or
SGJ this afternoon. Otherwise NE winds at 10-13G15-21 knots this
afternoon will fade around sunset (00Z) along with the shower
activity leaving VFR skies during most of the overnight hours
until inland Patchy MVFR fog is expected at GNV/JAX by 09Z, with
better chances of MVFR fog exist at VQQ during the 07-11Z time
frame. Slightly drier low levels after sunrise Wednesday will lead
to lower chances of MVFR CIGS during diurnal heating late in the
TAF period and will leave out of the forecast for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

Northeasterly flow will decrease some Today and Wednesday with high
pressure shifting southward off the east coast. As the high
shifts well E of the forecast area Thursday through Saturday,
winds will become more southerly across the waters. Wind speeds
are expected to be 5-10 kts with 2-3 ft seas Thursday through
Saturday.

.Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  89  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  70  83  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  66  87  67  91 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  69  85  69  88 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  65  90  66  92 /  10  10   0  10
OCF  67  91  68  93 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$