517
FXUS62 KJAX 230540
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
140 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 749 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track. With skies slowly becoming clear, some
patchy fog will be possible during the predawn hours over inland
locations. Overnight, temperatures will rest in the upper 60s
across the area, with coastal locations expected to rest in the
lower 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon/evening...East to Southeast steering flow
around the high pressure centered over the GA/SC region is combining
with PWATs around 1.25 inches and an inland moving East Coast sea
breeze to produce a few small pop-up isolated showers that will
continue across inland areas through the afternoon hours, mainly
across SE GA. For now most of the activity is just sprinkles and
measurable rainfall chances remain at 20% or less through sunset.
Activity not expected to become deep enough to produce any
thunderstorm activity.

Tonight...Skies to become mostly clear once again after sunset and
while not expected to become as cool as previous nights, still
expect near normal lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s
along the Atlantic Coast. Temps to cool enough over inland areas
to produce some patchy fog around sunrise Thursday morning, but
not expecting to see the amount of locally dense fog as this
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

A high pressure ridge will extend across the area Thursday and
Thursday night, from a high center to the northeast. Subsidence
under the ridge will lead to dry weather.

The ridge will begin to sink to the southeast Friday into Friday
night. A 500mb trough is expected to move across southern GA late
Friday into Friday night. This feature could result in a few showers
and storms over northern forecast area. In addition, an increase in
cloud coverage will be expected late in the day Friday through
Friday night, especially over SE GA is forecast.

Weak surface ridge will remain to the southeast Saturday through
Saturday night. An upper short wave is expected to move southeast
into area Saturday afternoon, then across region through Saturday
night. This feature, coupled with sea breeze boundary interactions
will yield a chance for storms across forecast area.

Temperatures will trend above normal throughout this period, but
warmest days will be Friday and Saturday due to warm advection on
Southwest flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The region will be between high pressure ridge to the southeast and
an approaching front to the northwest Sunday into Monday. The
frontal boundary will move into the region and stall Tuesday into
Wednesday. Waves are expected to move along this boundary. The
greatest chances for showers and storms will be Tuesday and
Wednesday, due to the frontal zone.

Temperatures will trend above normal through Tuesday, then be closer
to normal Wednesday due to front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure sinking towards the area will create quiet VFR
conditions to begin the period with MVFR to IFR fog restrictions
at VQQ and GNV after 07Z through 11Z. High pressure will sink
over the areas from the northeast today with light south to
southeasterly winds 4-6 knots becoming easterly behind the
advancing Atlantic seabreeze 5-8 knots inland and 8-10 knots
at the coast with diurnally driven cumulus clouds lifting from
4.0 kft to 6.0 kft ahead of the seabreeze with clearing behind
the seabreeze save for thin cirrus clouds moving in from the
northwest. Winds will lighten and become southeasterly under 5
knots after 01Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

Weak Onshore flow will continue to fade through the end of the
week as high pressure ridge builds south over the local waters and
expect diurnal sea breeze cycle to dominate the mostly dry
weather pattern. The ridge axis will builds south of the local
waters over the weekend and produce a more offshore flow and keep
the sea breeze pinned closer to the Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorm
chances will increase slightly, but mainly just isolated over the
weekend with more scattered storm activity early next week as the
next frontal boundary approaches the region from the Northwest and
continue to increase the offshore flow closer to SCEC or
potential SCA levels.

Rip Currents/Coastal Flooding: Moderate risk of rip currents will
continue through Thursday in the weak onshore flow. The approach
of the full moon on Thursday has also brought up water levels
along the Atlantic Coast and St. Johns River Basin to Action
stage, but with the weakening onshore flow, not expecting to reach
Minor Flooding at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  69  92  71 /  10   0  10  10
SSI  85  72  89  73 /   0   0  20  20
JAX  90  69  93  70 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  87  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  92  67  93  68 /  10   0  10   0
OCF  93  69  93  69 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$