Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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405 FXUS62 KJAX 230638 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 238 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Mostly clear skies will remain over the area with some patchy fog development along between US17 and highway 301 corridors in the predawn hours this morning, but not expecting widespread areas of fog. High pressure ridging will sink south over NE FL today from the northeast with dry conditions. The Atlantic seabreeze will move inland past highway 301 through mid to late afternoon and merge with the weaker Gulf seabreeze around I-75/US441. Skies will be partly cloudy from strong diurnal heating and thin cirrus passing in from the northwest, but subsidence and dry air aloft will prevent shower development. Highs will be warmer compared to Wednesday into the low 90s along and west of I-95 with mid to upper 80s at the coast buffered by the seabreeze. Tonight, skies will begin mostly clear with patchy fog developing along and west of I-75 towards the Gulf coast as weak southerly low level flow increases boundary layer moisture across the Suwannee Valley. Lows will be a little above normal in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 A progressive warming trend and mostly dry with low shower/storm chances each day (< 20%) as the surface ridge axis extends across central FL and weak troughs linger to the NNW. Prevailing westerly steering flow will bring a more dominant west coast sea breeze, with the hottest daytime temperatures and thermal low focused toward the I-95 corridor each afternoon as high temperatures range in the low to mid 90s with heat index values 100-105 degrees. For context, record highs this time of year are in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Daily late day/early evening sea breeze collisions are expected near to just west of the SE GA I-95 corridor and the NE FL St. Johns River basin where a few showers or lone storm will be possible, however, dry air in the 700-500 layer will really limit convective growth. A strong 590 dam ridge will remain anchored across the western GOMEX, with weak short wave troughs `ridge riding` across the periphery which could trigger isolated diurnally enhanced convection during the afternoon and evening, mainly across SE GA with potential outflow boundary and sea breeze interactions. NE FL will remain mostly dry. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Monday & Monday Night...Increasing rain chances and a downward trend in high temperatures are expected with a frontal zone in the area. The persistent GOMEX ridge begins to de-amplify across the SE region as long wave trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. A surface front edges southward across SE GA through Monday night into with deeper moisture as PWATs rise over 1.8 inches under increasing mid/upper level dynamics as rain chances increase to near 30% Mostly dry and hot conditions continue across NE FL where highs will be pushing the mid/upper 90s under breezier SW flow, with little relief from the east coast sea breeze. Tue & Wed...Scattered showers and isolated t`storms are expected due to the frontal zone slowly edging southward across the area (40-50% rain chances). By Wednesday, moisture shifts farther south across the FL peninsula with drier and `cooler` conditions north of the I-10 corridor as highs range in the upper 80s to low 90s as a surface ridge builds WNW of the region. Given the time of year, the potential for the frontal zone to stall farther north and linger mid-week exists, which would maintain higher rain chances across SE GA. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure sinking towards the area will create quiet VFR conditions to begin the period with MVFR to IFR fog restrictions at VQQ and GNV after 07Z through 11Z. High pressure will sink over the areas from the northeast today with light south to southeasterly winds 4-6 knots becoming easterly behind the advancing Atlantic seabreeze 5-8 knots inland and 8-10 knots at the coast with diurnally driven cumulus clouds lifting from 4.0 kft to 6.0 kft ahead of the seabreeze with clearing behind the seabreeze save for thin cirrus clouds moving in from the northwest. Winds will lighten and become southeasterly under 5 knots after 01Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 235 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024 High pressure will extend across the Northeast Florida waters from the western Atlantic today with light southerly winds turning more southeasterly and elevating some nearshore due to the Atlantic seabreeze circulation. Seabreeze circulations will continue each afternoon through the weekend into early next week with southwest winds becoming southerly in the afternoon and early evening. Cold front approaching from the northwest will sink into the waters with chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waters. Rip Currents: Moderate Risk Today and Friday for all area beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 92 69 92 71 / 10 0 10 10 SSI 85 72 89 73 / 0 0 20 20 JAX 90 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 87 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 92 67 93 68 / 10 0 10 0 OCF 93 69 93 69 / 10 0 10 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$